DraftKings’ 85% advance from its 2022 low point still doesn’t fully factor the company’s potential.
There’s never a bad time to invest in a good company. There are better times than others, however — such as when they’re on sale, discounted for reasons that aren’t going to last.
For example, bargain-hunting growth investors might want to consider DraftKings (DKNG -3.16%) while its stock is still down 43% from its all-time peak. It’s suffering some turbulence right now, but the bigger-picture investment thesis is still solid for all the right reasons.
The growth trend remains intact
DraftKings is, of course, the fantasy sports platform that delved into online sports betting after the Supreme Court lifted the nationwide ban on it back in 2018.
As various states have legalized this segment of the gambling business within their borders, DraftKings has entered these markets. It now operates in 25 of the 38 states that allow sports betting in one form or another, plus the District of Columbia. Among the remainder, more states are heading toward legalization. There’s simply too much tax revenue to be gained for state legislatures to shrug off.
This doesn’t mean the company has always lived up to expectations. Take last quarter. Although revenue grew 39% year over to nearly $1.1 billion, that fell slightly short of analysts’ consensus expectation of $1.11 billion. And while its adjusted loss of $0.17 per share was better than the $0.18 per share loss Wall Street anticipated, DraftKings’ per-user monthly revenue of $103 fell more sharply than predicted from its prior-year result of $114.
However, there’s a reason why DraftKings stock popped in the wake of that third-quarter report despite the relatively disappointing results; it still put up quite impressive numbers in terms of sales growth and shrinking losses. Its adjusted loss per share was essentially halved year over year, and while its revenue guidance for the coming year was only in line with analysts’ expectations, that still would amount to a top-line gain of about 30%.
The window of opportunity is closing
This past and projected growth begs the question: Why is DraftKings stock still down 43% from its 2021 high? For that matter, what up-ended the stock so dramatically between the latter half of 2021 and the first half of 2022? The bear market alone couldn’t have been responsible for the entirety of the 85% pullback the stock experienced.
At the heart of those extreme swings was timing. DraftKings went public in April 2020 in the midst of a pandemic-clouded market environment that was very receptive to new opportunities. By then, it was already getting some traction within the then-young sports-wagering market. But with much of the world stuck at home for the next couple of years while sports were only stymied by COVID-19 for a few months, the company saw explosive growth. The stock dished out similarly hot growth.
As could have been expected, however, reality eventually set in. By the end of 2021, investors were coming to grips with the fact that the fast-growing company was still unprofitable.
A funny thing happened beginning in 2022 though. The dust began to settle. A few more states legalized online sports wagering. Then a few more. Perhaps this is when it became clearer to investors that it would take DraftKings several years to reach its full potential within each state-based market. Indeed, it’s not clear when — or even if — its growth starts slowing down after DraftKings sets up shop. It’s only clear that the stock’s sellers overshot their target back in 2022.
Image source: DraftKings 2023 Investor Day Presentation.
It’s this business growth driven by continued user growth (one of the results of simply remaining operational in a state once the DraftKings app is launched there) that has been pushing the stock upward since early 2023.
There’s room and reason for DraftKings stock to keep rising
So where’s the end of the line? It’s still miles away.
The American Gaming Association reports that 38 states now permit at least some sort of sports betting. Not all of them allow it to be done online, and some of their laws and regulations aren’t conducive to app-based betting like DraftKings offers. Nevertheless, the market for this type of gambling is still growing due to expanded consumer awareness and continued legalization efforts.
Market research outfit Straits Research predicts the global online sports wagering industry will grow at an annualized pace of more than 11% through 2032. That forecast jibes with the outlook of Mordor Intelligence.
And U.S.-focused DraftKings fully expects to continue capitalizing on this growth. During the Investor Day presentation held in November 2023, the company suggested it would be doing $7.1 billion worth of annual business by 2028, and turning $2.1 billion of it into EBITDA.
Image source: DraftKings 2023 Investor Day Presentation.
For perspective, DraftKings believes its top line lands at just under $5 billion this year, while adjusted EBITDA will be in the ballpark of $260 million. So, shrug off last quarter’s relatively lackluster numbers, take the bigger-picture hints, and recognize the reasons most investors are increasingly bullish on this stock.
This might help: Despite this ticker’s sizable (even if erratic) gains since early 2023, shares are still priced at more than 20% below analysts’ average price target of $50.80. Moreover, three-fourths of the analyst community keeping tabs on this stock rate don’t just rate it a buy, but a strong buy. That’s not a bad tailwind for starting a new position.
James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
