In the latest electoral map projections by RealClearPolitics (RCP), Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in four key battleground states, which would pave the way for a narrow Trump victory in the November election.
What Happened: The RCP electoral map has Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. This is despite a tumultuous campaign and a rising Harris. The map showed no toss-up states.
The electoral map also indicated that Harris is likely to retain Michigan and Wisconsin, keeping these states away from Trump’s grasp for a second consecutive election.
In 2016, Trump won upset victories in these states, which led to his victory over Hillary Clinton.
If the current RCP projections hold, Trump would defeat Harris 287-251 in the electoral vote, which requires at least 270 electors for victory.
However, these projections contrast with a Sienna/New York Times poll released the same day, which showed Trump trailing Harris in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In addition, an Ipsos poll released on Thursday found Trump and Harris in a “statistical dead heat” in seven battleground states.
Harris took the lead over Trump in online betting markets for the first time last week.
Why It Matters: The RCP electoral map projections are significant as they provide a snapshot of the current political landscape. The lead of Trump in four key battleground states could potentially shape the outcome of the November elections.
However, the contrasting results from other polls underscore the volatility and uncertainty of the political climate. As the election draws closer, these projections and polls will continue to be closely monitored to gauge the potential outcomes.
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