The presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Ex-President Donald Trump shifted the betting odds for the winner on Election Day.
Here’s a look at who has the edge and how the markets have shifted in recent months.
What Happened: Harris has been performing well in recent election polls and her performance at the presidential debate against Trump could continue to show momentum with gains from undecided voters.
The betting odds are near even between the two candidates at Bet365, as reported by Covers. Harris now has the edge at -125 with Trump ranking close behind at +100. These betting odds translate to around a 55.5% implied chance of Harris winning the election and implied odds of 50% of Trump winning the election — just to illustrate how close the election remains.
Harris saw her odds improve to -110 and take the status of the betting favorite after the presidential debate. News of global superstar Taylor Swift‘s endorsing Harris sent the vice president’s odds to -125, making her a bigger favorite to win the election.
For comparison, Trump was the favorite at odds of -125 and Harris was listed at +100 back in August.
BetMGM, which is a joint venture between Entain and MGM Resorts International MGM, doesn’t offer betting on political outcomes to U.S. customers, but its Ontario customers can bet on the 2024 election.
On BetMGM, Trump is listed as the favorite at -135, improving from odds of +100 before the debate, as reported by BetMGM’s John Ewing. Trump has 70% of the money on him to win since the debate at BetMGM according to Ewing.
Prediction market Polymarket, which calls itself the world’s largest prediction market, offers betting on items in categories such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and more.
On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon MATIC/USD network, or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. In each betting market, the winning option pays out at $1.
The prediction market for the winner of the 2024 presidential election has attracted over $870 million in wagers on Polymarket. Here are the current odds:
- Donald Trump: 50%
- Kamala Harris: 48.5%
Trump has mostly been in the lead on Polymarket, with Harris remaining close and sometimes taking the lead. Trump held a lead of eight points ahead of the debate before the two candidates ended up tied after the debate and shortly after. The former president regained a lead on Polymarket Wednesday.
Similar to sportsbooks, the prediction market shows a near toss-up between the two candidates.
Did You Know?
Why It’s Important: The new betting odds mark a shift in the odds from July. After an assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania, his odds hit -250 as a larger favorite with Biden listed at +500 and Harris at +800.
Following the first presidential debate, Trump had odds of -175, with Harris at +400 topping the odds of Biden at +800 before his withdrawal from the race.
In late June, Trump was listed with odds of -188 with Biden at +350 and Harris significantly behind at +2,200.
Keep in mind that back in January 2021, it was Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of +350 based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
Harris has closed the gap between the Democratic and Republican parties and her debate performance has now made it more likely that she wins the 2024 election.
A recent Morning Consult poll showed Harris with a three-point lead over Trump among nationally registered voters who are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
Harris has also shown a lead among Independent voters and young voters in a recent poll, which could be two key voter groups that decide the 2024 election.
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