The head-to-head matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains close in election polls and betting odds with less than one month until the 2024 election day.
The two methods of predicting the winner of the 2024 presidential election appear to differ on who will be sworn in on inauguration day in January 2025.
What Happened: Election polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, with the current vice president getting the edge in most national polls of registered polls.
While some swing state polls point to Trump winning the key battleground states, most national polls show Harris with a strong chance of winning the 2024 election.
After Harris led betting odds and prediction markets for some time, both of these key indicators have shifted to favoring Trump as the winner of the 2024 election, which could put election polls and betting odds in different camps when it comes to predicting a winner.
The betting odds at Bet365 show Trump as the favorite to return to the White House, as reported by Covers.
Trump is listed as the favorite at -150, implying a 60% chance of winning the election and Harris listed at +120 as the underdog with an implied chance of 45.6% to win the election.
The betting odds differ from less than a month ago when Harris was listed as the favorite with odds of -125 and Trump was listed as the underdog at +120.
For comparison, Trump was the favorite at odds of -125 and Harris was listed at +100 back in August.
Polymarket, which calls itself the world’s largest prediction market, offers betting on items in categories such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and more.
The Polymarket 2024 election outcome winner market has over $1.9 billion in wagers placed and continues to be one of the most popular markets. The current odds show Trump with a 57.9% chance of winning and Harris with a 41.9% chance of winning.
This differs significantly from weeks ago when Harris was the favorite at 51% and Trump had less than 50%.
On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon MATIC/USD network, or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. In each betting market, the winning option pays out at $1.
Did You Know?
Why It’s Important: Trump has mostly been in the lead on Polymarket, with Harris remaining close and sometimes taking the lead. Trump held a lead of eight points ahead of the September presidential debate before the two candidates ended up tied after the debate and shortly after.
Harris has seen her odds on the prediction market drop significantly in recent weeks, while Trump’s odds to win have come roaring back.
The betting odds and prediction markets have often fluctuated with key political events and assassination attempts on Trump often impacting the markets.
An assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania led to the former president becoming a huge favorite at -250 with then presidential candidate President Joe Biden at +500 and Harris at +800.
Following the first presidential debate, Trump had odds of -175, with Harris at +400 topping the odds of Biden at +800 before his withdrawal from the race.
In late June, Trump was listed with odds of -188 with Biden at +350 and Harris significantly behind at +2,200.
Keep in mind that back in January 2021, it was Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of +350 based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
Most election polls point to seven key swing states that could decide the outcome of the 2024 election. Betting odds for six of the swing states are listed on Bet365, as reported by Covers and are listed below:
- Arizona: Harris +220, Trump -275
- Georgia: Harris +162, Trump -200
- Michigan: Harris -125, Trump +100
- North Carolina: Harris +150, Trump -188
- Pennsylvania: Harris +100, Trump -120
- Wisconsin: Harris -125, Trump +100
The betting odds imply that Trump would win five of the seven states taking a total of 62 electoral college votes represented by the six states above. Harris would win two states and secure 25 of the 87 electoral college votes.
The election polls and betting odds may differ, but both still show a close race expected between Trump and Harris.
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