Tesla’s Fancy Data And Computing Claims Likely Will Not Impress Investors: Gary Black Highlights Drastic Jump In EV Disengagement Rates And Missing Robotaxi Details As Key Question

The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black anticipates Tesla Inc.‘s TSLA upcoming earnings call will face scrutiny over several critical business segments, particularly the company’s autonomous driving capabilities and vehicle profitability targets.

What Happened: Black, writing on social media platform X, suggested Tesla management is unlikely to discuss details of its planned $25,000-$30,000 compact vehicle during the call, citing potential impact on Model 3 sales. Management “has been clear that earnings calls are not the appropriate place to discuss new product launches,” Black noted.

The analyst highlighted pressing questions about Tesla’s autonomous driving progress, specifically the gap between current performance and regulatory requirements.

How does Tesla “go from 300 miles per disengagement today to the 17,000 miles per disengagement likely needed by regulators to approve a robotaxi deployment license?” Black wrote, adding that management needs to provide substantive support beyond citing fleet size, data, and computing capabilities.

Cybertruck profitability remains another key focus area, with investors seeking clarity on potential losses from the approximately 13,500 deliveries in the third quarter and the timeline for reaching breakeven status by year-end.

Black also emphasized Tesla’s significant growth potential through brand leverage, comparing it to Porsche‘s successful expansion into the SUV market. He identified several untapped market opportunities for Tesla:

• Compact vehicle segment ($25,000-$30,000 price range)
• Small pickup truck market
• Tesla Semi
• Tesla van
• Tesla Roadster
• Robotaxi services
• Robotics division

“We continue to believe the $25,000-$30,000 Tesla Compact represents the largest single value creation opportunity not currently discounted by Tesla stock,” Black concluded, while noting the robotics division’s potential remains “largely unquantifiable” pending a working prototype.

The earnings call is also expected to address questions about gross margins, financing promotions, and potential impacts of different political scenarios on Tesla’s EV policies.

Black also anticipates a question about how Tesla could fare under different political leadership, specifically if Former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris were to become president. Investors will likely be interested in how each administration’s policies might impact Tesla’s electric vehicle strategy and growth in the U.S. market.

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Why It Matters: The anticipation surrounding Tesla’s conference call comes at a time when analysts are closely examining the company’s fundamentals. Analyst Troy Teslike expects Tesla to miss consensus estimates for non-GAAP EPS, similar to previous quarters.

Meanwhile, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives maintains an optimistic outlook, reiterating an Outperform rating with a $300 price target.

Shareholders are eager for updates on Tesla’s pending promises, including timelines for upcoming products and the rollout of Full Self-Driving technology. Despite challenges, The Future Fund LLC remains optimistic about Tesla’s prospects, citing global EV adoption trends and expansion opportunities as key factors in their long position.

Price Action: Tesla stock closed at $217.97 on Tuesday, down 0.40% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped further 0.22%. Year-to-date, Tesla’s stock has dropped by 12.26%, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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Image Via Tesla

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.