The head-to-head race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remained close with less than one week until the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Harris maintains a lead over Trump in many election polls as Election Day nears, but her odds in prediction markets and betting odds have trailed the former president by a wide margin.
A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris’ lead dropping, continuing a recent string of a lead of six points shrinking.
The new poll shows the following results from voters, with results from the Oct. 22 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 50 (50%)
- Donald Trump: 47% (46%)
- Someone Else: 1% (2%)
- Don’t Know: 2% (2%)
The poll also found that 94% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, down one percentage point from last week’s poll. The poll also found 92% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, in line with last week’s poll.
Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Oct. 22 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 49% (47%)
- Donald Trump: 43% (43%)
- Someone Else: 4% (4%)
- Don’t Know: 4% (7%)
The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 age voters demographic, leading 54% to 44%. The 10-point lead is up from last week’s eight-point advantage for the vice president.
Did You Know?
Why It’s Important: Harris’ lead over Trump dropped to three points, down from a four-point lead in the past two weeks. The lead is down from a six-point lead Harris had several weeks ago.
After seeing her lead decline in the key Independent and young voter demographics, Harris grew the lead in these two important voter segments with one week until Election Day.
Morning Consult said in the poll that 45% of likely voters said they had heard something positive about Harris, keeping a trend of the vice president having positive net buzz in place. The poll found that 49% of likely voters said they had recently heard something negative about Trump.
The good news for Trump in the poll, along with shrinking Harris’ overall lead, is the Republican party being favored on several key election issues. The Republicans were more favored in the poll on items such as the economy, national security and immigration over the Democratic Party. In the poll, the Democratic Party was more favored on health care, climate change and abortion versus the Republican Party.
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