One Wall Street analyst sees over 40% upside for Ford stock, but investors should be skeptical.
Ford (F -0.68%) updated investors with its third-quarter earnings this week, and the report contained some good news. Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska thinks there are reasons to see the stock rise to his firm’s price target of $15 per share, according to Barron’s.
That would represent a gain of over 40% from the stock’s recent price. But investors shouldn’t overlook some of the not-so-good news also present in Ford’s Q3 earnings release. With the stock dropping after the earnings report, it seems many investors are not, in fact, overlooking Ford’s headwinds.
Ford’s struggles
Ford continues to see strong results in some areas of its business, most notably with truck sales and its Ford Pro commercial vehicle division. But even a Wall Street bull like Roeska must acknowledge areas where the company continues to struggle. In his report on Monday, the analyst noted those issues, stating:
Management pointed to a host of potential headwinds in Q4 and going into next year, including weaker consumer sentiment, [product] mix shifts, negative pricing, and intensifying EV competition, to name a few.
But there is another area he fails to mention. Ford continues to grapple with product quality issues that are impacting its profitability. Ford CFO John Lawler said warranty costs in Q3 were “slightly lower” compared to the prior-year period, reports CNBC.
Lawler added that it was not the level of improvement the company wanted. While it didn’t disclose the actual figure for this quarter, it follows an $800 million year-over-year jump in warranty costs in the second quarter.
Investors should monitor warranty expenses for notable improvement before buying Ford stock. Those costs were partly to blame for Ford guiding investors to expect just $10 billion in adjusted earnings for 2024. It had previously said to expect a range of $10 billion to $12 billion.
While there is strength in some parts of Ford’s business, the stock won’t likely hit Roeska’s target price until it solves its ongoing quality issues.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
