Jobs Friday Punishes Markets: Jan. 10, 2025

Markets are getting pounded following this morning’s ferocious Friday Jobs Report which depicted the strongest hiring in nine months alongside a dip in unemployment. Failing to assist market sentiment was a UMich release 90 minutes later that reported a sharp jump in short- and long-run inflation expectations. Another blow to stocks and bonds alike came from soaring oil prices, which are buoyant on the back of Washington implementing energy related sanctions on Moscow. The fiery developments sent the 10-year yield to its heaviest level since October of 2023 and the S&P 500 down to a negative 1.5% year-to-date return and off 4.7% from its all-time high.

Employers Go On Hiring Binge

The US labor market finished 2024 in stride with December job growth accelerating to its fastest pace since March. The 256,000 payroll additions exceeded the 160,000 median estimate and the 227,000 from November. The trend of non-cyclical concentration within employment expansions remained, as the private education, health services and government sectors boosted headcounts by a collective 113,000. But some of the economically sensitive areas also performed well, namely retail trade, leisure/hospitality, professional/business services and financial activities, which came in at 43,400, 43,000, 28,000 and 13,000. Contributing to lesser degrees of 10,000 or below were the information, transportation/warehousing, construction and other services segments. Furthermore, temporary help services employees increased for the second month in a row, in a sign that labor supply is waning. Countering the upside, however, were the manufacturing, wholesale trade and mining segments, which lost 13,000, 3,500 and 3,000 positions.

Wage Bills Grow, Unemployment Sinks

Wage pressures also pointed to underlying strength although average hourly earnings did post a modest deceleration. Hourly pay rates grew 0.3% month over month (m/m) and 3.9% year over year (y/y) compared to 0.4% and 4% in November while arriving in-line with estimates on the monthly figure but a tenth lighter on the annualized number. Additionally, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, beneath projections expecting an unchanged 4.2%. An increase in the labor force helped to subdue the rate of joblessness, but the participation rate did maintain it’s 62.5% level for the third consecutive month. Similarly, the average hours in a work week has remained at 34.3 since August.

Inflation Fears Ding Consumer Sentiment

Consumers are increasingly worried about inflation so far this month with price pressure projections soaring, as illustrated by the University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index sinking to 73.2 in January, missing the 73.8 expectation and arriving beneath December’s 74. While survey respondents felt better about current conditions, with that segment rising from 75.1 to 77.9, the outlook for the future offset optimism about the present. The consumer expectations component dropped from 73.3 to 70.2, against the backdrop of 1- and 5-year inflation expectations climbing from 2.8% and 3% to 3.3% and 3.3%. Concerns over higher charges in the future were predominantly reported from lower-income consumers.

Consumer Focused Companies Exceed Expectations

Delta Air lines (DAL) and Walgreen’s Boots Alliance (WBA) both issued stronger-than-expected earnings reports and boosted optimism regarding Americans’ spending clout. Delta posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that easily exceeded analysts’ expectations and guided for revenue to climb as much as 9% this year compared to the consensus outlook of only 5%. CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC this morning that “Everywhere we look we see consumers continue to prioritize experiences over goods.” Walgreens, which operates pharmacies, posted a fourth-quarter net loss but said revenue climbed from $36.71 billion to $39.46 billion y/y, which exceeded analyst expectations. Tilray Brands, (TLRY) a provider of alcoholic beverages and cannabis products, however, posted mixed results, with revenue that missed analyst expectations despite climbing 9% y/y for the quarter ended November 30. Beverage revenue jumped 36% while sales of cannabis products declined modestly. Encouragingly, the midrange of its 2025 fiscal year guidance exceeded Wall Street’s expectation.

Canada Job Growth Defies Expectations

Canada’s labor market demonstrated considerable strength last month, adding 90,900 workers, up from 50,500 in November and above the forecast of only 25,000. The goods sector showed vibrancy, filling 22,500 positions, with the lion’s share of those in manufacturing. The services sector snatched up 68,400 workers with the largest expansions occurring in educational services, transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate fell from an almost eight-year high of 6.8% in November to 6.7%, much better than the consensus expectation of 6.9%.

Canada’s Construction Industry Continues to Limp

The contraction in Canada’s construction industry accelerated in November with the value of building permits issued falling 5.9% m/m compared to the 4.1% decline in October and the median estimate for a 1.3% increase. The weak showing was driven by a 10.7% drop in multi-unit housing while single-family permits sank only 2.3%. Permits for nonresidential building dropped by 3.2%.

Japan Shoppers Maintain Spending

Rising prices in Japan didn’t stop consumers from shopping in November, which recorded a 0.4% m/m increase. It was substantially better than the decline of 0.9% anticipated by analysts but down from the sharp 2.9% in October. On a y/y basis, cash register activity contracted 0.4% compared to the 1.3% dip in October and the estimate for a negative 0.6% figure. November was the fourth consecutive y/y decline. Weakness on a y/y basis was the worst for the furniture and appliances category and the clothing and footwear group with outlays moving south by 13.8% and 13.7%. Additionally, the recreation and leisure group and food purchases dipped 2.9% and 0.6%. Spending on home renovations and maintenance bucked the trend with an 18.7% increase. Also in Japan, winter bonuses helped push inflation-adjusted incomes up 0.7% in November. 

Good Is Bad Once Again

Stocks are getting clobbered while Treasurys shift in bear-flattening motion with rate watchers and IBKR ForecastTraders not expecting a Fed cut anytime in the near future. Indeed, prospects for a July reduction are near a coinflip and the central bank’s pause down the monetary policy stairs has equity investors nervous. Every major domestic stock benchmark is taking heavy losses with the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial down 2.6%, 1.9%, 1.7% and 1.5%. Sectoral breadth is deeply negative with technology, financials and real estate weighing on overall performance the most; they’re lower by 2.3%, 2.3% and 1.9%. Energy is the sole gainer, it’s up a modest 0.2%. Treasurys are changing hands at 4.37% and 4.75% across the 2- and 10-year maturities, 10 and 6 basis points (bps) heavier on the session and serving to dent the rate sensitive areas of the market with regional bank and biotech stock baskets lower by 3.5% and 3.2%. The dollar is surging though, as expectations regarding relative US outperformance and positive interest rate differentials push up the greenback. Its index is up a sharp 50 bps as the American currency appreciates versus most of its major counterparts including the euro, pound sterling, franc, yuan and Aussie and Canadian tenders. It is depreciating against the yen, however. Commodities are mostly bullish but rate sensitive copper and lumber are lower by 0.4% and 1.2% as soaring borrowing costs hamper the outlooks for manufacturing and real estate. But crude oil, silver and gold are up 2%, 1.1% and 0.7% against the backdrop. WTI crude is trading at $74.99 per barrel as Washington tightens its stance versus Moscow as it relates to energy sanctions.

Bye-Bye Valuation Expansion?

An acceleration in economic activity has occurred following election day as the prospects of pro-growth policies stateside boost business confidence. But the possible inflationary impacts of adversarial trade postures and immigration reform lurk in the background, especially since goods drove the disinflation train from 2022 and the nation has a labor shortage, which if worsened could push up wage bills. Indeed, non-inflationary growth is key to a successful Trump 2.0 administration, as it would boost stock prices and keep the Fed off the backs of the market and economy. Finally, the long-end is unlikely to cooperate in the near future, as strong growth projections, augmented term premiums and uncertainty regarding inflation push the 10-year back to 5%. Stocks do have an answer, but it would have to come from earnings prowess at this juncture and not further expansions in valuation. 

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