By Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC
1/Â Palantir (PLTR) Surges, but is a Reversal Looming?
2/Â Is This a Head Fake or the Start of a Bond Reversal?
3/Â Filtering Out the Noise: Why the 10-Month Moving Average Matters
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1/
Palantir (PLTR) Surges, but is a Reversal Looming?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) ripped higher this week after an earnings beat, sending the stock surging through the upper Bollinger Band to an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading.
Interestingly, this new all-time high is accompanied by a bearish RSI divergence, the stock price is making a higher high, but the RSI is making a lower high. This divergence is often a precursor to a potential pause or reversal.
The case for a pullback strengthens when looking at the monthly RSI print of 91.69, an extremely overbought level. Historically, when PLTR has reached similar conditions, it has struggled to sustain momentum. Based on the last two occurrences of this setup, it may be time to consider taking some profits and looking for better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere
2/
Is This a Head Fake or the Start of a Bond Reversal?
Over the past six months, the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) has broken above its upper Bollinger Band twice, attempting to reverse a five-year-long downtrend in bond prices. Now, for the third time, it’s trying again.
Is the third time the charm?
Can this breakout finally mark the turning point for long-duration bonds, or is it just another head fake before a deeper drawdown?
Key level to watch: $67.39, the middle Bollinger Band. If EDV can hold above this level, it could signal a more sustainable move. However, a break below may indicate yet another failed attempt, similar to the previous two instances.
3/
Filtering Out the Noise: Why the 10-Month Moving Average Matters
The S&P 500 is still above its 10-month moving average, a simple yet effective way to cut through the noise of daily headlines and economic data. Over the past two weeks, it has been easy to get caught up in market narratives, but at the end of each week, I come back to this chart, one of my favorites.
Historically, when the index breaks below this level, downside risk increases, just as we saw in 2022. While I’m not an advocate of a strict buy-and-hold approach, I do believe in filtering out the noise and focusing on meaningful signals. The 10-month moving average is one of those signals worth watching.
Good luck out there.
Disclaimer: Advisory Services offered through Sykon Capital, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This material is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice and is not intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney or tax advisor. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable as of the date of this report. Past performance is not indicative of future returns and diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed.
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Originally posted 07th February 2025
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