President Trump’s weekend decision to adopt a softer stance on electronic imports from China is fueling a rally in big-tech. And despite expectations that the tariff reprieve will only offer short-term relief, as the Commander in Chief alluded, animal spirits are being bolstered by the White House’s empathetic tilt. But it’s not just shares of the magnificent 7 that investors are picking up; we’re seeing buying activity in forecast contracts, across the yield curve and in cyclical commodities. Furthermore, our IBKR ForecastTrader prediction marketplace has been dialing down the odds of recession in light of incrementally tempered trade confrontations. Another part of the rising optimism is the expectation of a robust retail sales report, which is out this Wednesday.
Equities Gain on Tariff Optimism
On a quiet day from an economic calendar standpoint, all major equity benchmarks and sectors are higher with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 indices up 1%, 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.6%. Real estate, consumer staples and utilities are gaining the most across segments; they’re advancing by 1.8%, 1.4% and 1.4%. Treasurys are catching strong bids across the curve as the 2- and 10-year maturities change hands at 3.88% and 4.40%, 10 and 9 basis points (bps) lighter on the session. Softer borrowing costs are weighing on the greenback, however, leading to the US dollar losing ground relative to euro, pound sterling, franc, yen and Aussie tender. It is appreciating versus the yuan and loonie, though. Cyclical commodities are moving north, with lumber, copper and crude oil climbing 2%, 0.9% and 0.1%, but gold and silver are trimming 1% and 0.6%. Falling mortgage rates are serving to propel lumber, a critical construction commodity.
Hopes For Strategic Trade Policy Strengthen
Investors are viewing the softening in trade rhetoric as a bullish sign that the Trump administration is growing attentive to capital market developments. Traders are also gaining confidence that the Trump put is closer to today’s prices than the Fed put, although folks consider that both are moving targets. Still, the optimistic start of this week is fueled by hopes that the White House will approach negotiations increasingly tactfully, which bolsters economic growth expectations. Finally, even though volatility has been declining heavily, it remains well above historical averages, signaling the expectation of ongoing turbulence in stocks and rates alike.
ForecastEx Pick of the Week
Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick and Senior Economist José Torres like the “Yes” Forecast Contract for a figure above 2.3% y/y in tomorrow morning’s Canada Consumer Price Index. The “Yes,” currently priced at $0.29, pays out a dollar if correct.
International Roundup
Singapore’s Central Bank Accommodates
Singapore’s economic growth fell below expectations for the first quarter, according to preliminary data, but on a positive note, the country’s central bank eased its policy for the second time this year, hoping to support consumption, manufacturing and investment. The Monetary Authority of Singapore also dialed down its projections of economic growth and inflation in light of weakness across major economies amidst elevated uncertainty as it relates to global commerce. The country’s economy contracted 0.8% in the first quarter relative to the final three months of 2024, but grew 3.8% y/y. Economists projected rates of -0.4% and 4.2%. In the fourth quarter, GDP grew an estimated 0.5% quarter over quarter and 5% y/y. The Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry attributed the lower-than-expected results to a decline in manufacturing and softness in certain services, such as insurance and finance, as trade fears weighed on demand and confidence alike.
Rush to Beat Tariffs Boosts China’s Exports
China’s exports soared last month as US importers rushed to secure inventory prior to tariffs kicking in. Overall exports climbed 12.4% y/y, strongly exceeding the 4.4% analyst consensus expectation and the 2.3% gain in the second month of the year. The rate at which imports have declined in response to the country’s economic weakness, meanwhile, decelerated, contracting 4.3% in March after an 8.4% descent in the preceding month. Analysts expected imports to sink only 2% last month.
Japan Industry Picks Up but Misses Expectations
Japan’s industrial production increased 2.3% in February m/m after dropping 1.1% in January, which was the third-straight month of contraction. The sharp reversal, however, missed the analyst expectation for growth to hit 2.5%. Relative to February of last year, production grew only 0.1%, weaker than the 2.2% y/y rate in January.
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