How You’ll Know When Tariff Troubles Are Finally Over

ZINGER KEY POINTS

• There’s no deadline, so when can investors return to the stock market?
• Market experts share their views on how you’ll know the crisis is over.

There’s little doubt the tariff wars have taken a toll on Americans’ investment portfolios. And with the markets still in disrepair, nobody knows when stocks will stabilize.

“The situation is volatile, to say the least,” said Doug Carey, a financial advisor at WealthTrace, a retirement planning consumer software company. “President Trump has the final word on how much tariffs will cost because he is using emergency powers, citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), passed in 1977. These moves may be struck down in court, but for now, he can use them.”

To peg a reasonable timeframe, Benzinga reached out to select market experts for their views on a permanent “ceasefire” in the tariff wars, which could help calm anxious investors and encourage them to return to the market.

Here’s what they had to say on when the markets will come back to sanity.

Doug Carey: 

There will likely be several signs that the market is set to rebound after the tariff issue is settled – or at least stabilized. “Look for the stock market to rise substantially and for the dollar to strengthen,” Carey said. “Gold, which has increased over 25% this year due to the fear of a larger trade war, will do poorly if the tariff drama ends.”

Carey said technology stocks were hurt the most by the fear of a trade war. “For those who believe that there will be an end to this drama soon, the tech sector is a good place to invest,” he added.

Javier Palomarez, founder & CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council: 

“The clearest signal would be a statement from the Trump Administration that the tariffs are being walked away from, as a result of negotiations or whatever the case may be,” Palomarez said. “However, it’s worth noting that declining stocks also represent robust opportunities. Ideally, one would purchase their investments just before such a statement.”

Palomarez advises investors to be vigilant about watching tariff trends – you don’t want to miss the market rebound.

“If investors sold their stock at the low, it’s critical to purchase it back before the market fully reacts to the signal that everything is clear, especially if you plan on investing in stocks that are vulnerable to future tariffs and regulations,” Palomarez added. “Some investors may want to consider index funds or stocks in industries that are insulated from such rapid changes and regulatory uncertainty.”

Chuck Zhang, CFO of PolyFlow, a decentralized payments company in Fair Lawn, N.J.: 

Last week, President Trump hinted at a possible shift in his trade stance with China, suggesting that the steep tariffs on Chinese imports will be substantially reduced. “His comments signal a softening in tone following weeks of escalating rhetoric and retaliatory measures that had driven tariffs on Chinese goods to over 145%,” Zhang said. “While this would be a positive development in terms of de-escalation, the overarching trade policy remains assertive, contributing to the recent market volatility.”

Zhang said he would advise investors to monitor several variables. “We’re looking at a definitive resolution or rollback of tariffs; sustained rallies in equity markets, drops in the VIX volatility index, especially in sectors previously affected by tariffs; and overall improvements in global trade volumes, manufacturing indices, and corporate earnings,” he said.

Investors should simultaneously evaluate asset allocations to achieve alignment with their long-term financial goals, considering a diversified mix of equities, bonds and other assets.​ “Then, as a general rule, prioritize investments in companies with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings,” Zhen advised.

Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at the asset management firm Wisdom Tree:

Weniger suspects the tariff issue is at the stage where the most aggressive bargaining chips are being methodically pulled off the table. “For example, India and Japan are priced at 84% and 77% probabilities, respectively, of coming to a trade deal with the Trump administration by July,” he said. “Though other countries’ probabilities are priced lower (China is 42%), this is a far cry from some of the intense pessimism that was being priced in earlier this summer.”

For now, though, the worst of the drama is likely over. “The peak risk in markets was the 145% tariff on China, with similar reciprocity,” Weniger added. “Those figures have been coming down for a few weeks, as has the tone of commentary from both the White House and Beijing.”

Wenger also advised investors to keep an eye on volatility gauges such as the VIX index. “That index headed north of 60 on April 7th, a level of fear akin to readings that registered right after 9/11 and amid the bank and insurance company failures of late 2008,” he added. “Fear levels on that order often precipitate heady gains in stocks.”

Play The Tariff Game To Your Advantage

Other market experts say there is no clear sign that indicates the end of the tariff drama.

“This situation is not like a typical economic cycle with predictable patterns,” said Julia Khandoshko, CEO at Mind Money, an international brokerage firm. “Instead, it resembles a new phase in global economics — what might one day be known as the ‘Tariff Wars of the 21st Century.’”

Khandoshko believes investors shouldn’t wait for an obvious turning point, because one may never come. “Rather than looking for a specific event or announcement, they should integrate tariff risks into their long-term strategy,” she said. “This means evaluating how particular companies might be impacted if tariffs are imposed on their goods or services.”

Others agree, adding that tampering with the nation’s Treasury market is a bad idea going forward.

“There may not be an ‘all clear’ signal on tariffs because of politics,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation Group in Chicago. “Officials may quietly backpedal on them without a lot of publicity. This crisis started with a bang, but it might end with a whimper.”

Russell also offers a “lessons learned” factor for investors to absorb when the tariff-related carnage is over.

“Investors have learned that the bond market matters,” he noted. “Our system relies on a functioning Treasury market, which requires a degree of foreign participation. Undermining that system threatens the foundation of the stock market and the entire economy.”

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Originally Posted on April 28, 2025 – How You’ll Know When Tariff Troubles Are Finally Over

Editorial content from our Expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.

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