Bitcoin price predictions … why Luke Lango is looking beyond Bitcoin … perspective for crypto naysayers … where to start investing today
Let’s begin today with our crypto expert Luke Lango and his forecast for Bitcoin:
We think Bitcoin can rally to $120,000 by Christmas.
We think this Fourth Boom Cycle has about 12 months runway left, with room for Bitcoin to pop towards $200,000 by late 2025.
And we also believe altcoins will start to join the party soon and could soar in 2025, similar to how they soared in 2021.
Let’s back up and fill in a few details.
Since Trump’s victory on November 6, Bitcoin has exploded 42% and forecasts predict that bigger returns are coming
Beneath Bitcoin’s price surge has been record-setting demand. Here’s Bloomberg:
US exchange-traded funds investing directly in Bitcoin and Ether are enjoying unprecedented demand, buoyed by President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to unfetter the crypto industry from regulatory shackles.
The groups of Bitcoin and Ether ETFs each posted record monthly net inflows in November, $6.5 billion and $1.1 billion respectively, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Friday’s daily Ether ETF subscriptions also hit an all-time peak.
Propelling this wave of capital is the idea that Trump will not just be friendly to crypto, but an advocate. You’ve probably read headlines suggesting that Trump is considering creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Regardless of whether that happens, the forecasts for Bitcoin’s price have been climbing. And while some are based on little more than wishful thinking, Luke’s prediction of $200,000 is anchored in history…and a lot of math.
Here he is with more:
If we run a regression analysis on the size of previous boom cycles, we can see a pathway for BTC to rally towards $200,000 in 2025.
In the First Boom Cycle, BTC rallied about 55,000%, trough to peak. In the Second Boom Cycle, BTC rallied about 9,000%. In the Third Boom Cycle, BTC rallied about 2,000%.
The rallies have been getting smaller. If we run a simple regression on that, we find that BTC could rally about 1,000%, peak-to-trough, in the current boom cycle.
Bitcoin bottomed around $16,000 in late 2022. A 1,000% rally from there would get you to about $180,000 on BTC.
If we run a regression analysis on Bitcoin’s peak price in previous boom cycles – and not the returns of previous boom cycles – we see a pathway for Bitcoin to hit about $250,000 in this Fourth Boom Cycle…
If you throw in the very first peak of ~$25 on BTC in 2011 and then run on regression of those four previous peaks, the statistics suggest that Bitcoin should rally to above $250,000 in this boom cycle.
Luke settles at $200,000 as a rough mid-point for his 2025 forecast.
Now, while Bitcoin climbing another 50% or 100% by late-2025 is nothing to brush off, it’s the broader altcoin world that offers the real potential for fireworks.
“Only a fool would buy altcoins”
That’s a popular opinion. Many investors are reluctant to wade into this corner of the market.
The mindset here is something like: altcoins have no inherent value… they’re basically nothing but a gamble … and you’d better be prepared to lose your shirt if you touch one.
Our response might raise an eyebrow…
Agreed!
At least, up to a point (some of these coins do have inherent value).
But yes, there is a heavy element of gambling with altcoins. And yes, you should be prepared for extreme volatility and losses.
But for a small percentage of your portfolio that you have earmarked for speculations, the potential payoff is worth taking these risks.
To help make the case, I’m going to borrow from Luke’s stock trading service Breakout Trader
In Breakout Trader, Luke trades stocks based on something called “stage analysis.” In short, you only trade stocks that are surging in a “stage 2” bullish breakout.
There’s zero consideration given to profits, revenues, margins, cash flows, or any other such traditional measure of fundamental strength.
Instead, only one thing matters – price.
Here’s more from the User Guide:
Let’s say you found a truly atrocious company – we’re talking the opposite of a blue chip. It’s hemorrhaging cash, has awful management, and is in a dying industry.
But what if its stock price had just broken out and, hypothetically, was on its way to doubling from $5 to $10? Would any of those negative characteristics matter to you?
If what you care about is your personal wealth, they shouldn’t. Why would they?
All that would matter is that the stock is doubling while you’re invested…
With all due respect to whatever your preferred market approach might be, our Breakout Trader system focuses on the one thing that really matters to your wealth…
A price breakout.
At the end of the day, the only thing that will make a difference to your portfolio is whether the stocks you own rise in value while you own them.
A stock is not a family heirloom to pass down and cherish. It’s a tool. It’s only as useful as its ability to generate wealth, which puts its price (or its dividend payments) squarely in the spotlight. At the end of the day, any other focus is misguided.
For example, in early November, the company Quantum Computing (QUBT) reported a Q3 net loss of $5.68 million. Its margins also collapsed from 52% to 9%.
And yet, since November 1, QUBT is up a staggering 404% as I write. At the end of last month, it was up nearly 600%.
The chart below shows this price explosion with a bit longer timeline for context.
Now, if you bought QUBT on October 31, would you care that it’s never made one dime of profit… is burning through cash… and has collapsing margins?
I doubt it. You’re probably too busy planning your vacation with your profits.
So, if you wouldn’t care with a stock like QUBT, why should you care if an altcoin doesn’t have obvious inherent value – as long as it’s surging like QUBT?
If your purpose for being in the market is increasing your wealth, you won’t. You’ll see altcoins for what they are – tools for making money.
Circling back to Bitcoin and the altcoin universe, get ready for leadership change, which suggests lots of money to be made in 2025
Bitcoin is the big dog in the crypto universe.
The chart below will give you a sense for this. We’re looking at Bitcoin’s market cap (in blue at the top) compared to the market cap of the top 125 altcoins (only a handful of those altcoins are shown).
As I write, Bitcoin makes up about 56% of the crypto sector’s market cap (specifically, the largest 125 altcoins just referenced).
Given its monster size, early in a new cycle, Bitcoin outperforms smaller altcoins. This “Bitcoin dominance” makes sense as the sector is coming out of its prior bust. Bruised investors are in “safety” mode, focusing on what they consider to be the biggest, strongest assets. For crypto, that’s Bitcoin by a mile.
But as the cycle continues, gains snowball, investor confidence returns, and animal spirits take over. Eventually, emboldened investors begin allocating to smaller altcoins in search of bigger gains. Leadership rotates away from Bitcoin, toward altcoins.
Here’s Luke with the general timing:
Our monthly RSI analysis of BTC suggests that we are just now entering the “bubble phase” of the boom cycle. The “bubble” phase is also when altcoins start to soar.
As it turns out, the so-called “altcoin season” tends to start right when Bitcoin enters the “bubble phase” – or when its monthly RSI crosses above 70.
Which means, in our view, that 2025 could be the altcoin season.
Luke isn’t the only analyst suggesting this. Below is a chart from J-C Parets. It shows Bitcoin dominance hitting a three-month low. The question asked is, “Is it the start of altcoin season?”
If we go by recent performance, the answer is “yes” – altcoin season appears to have begun.
To illustrate, here are some of the top gainers over the last 30 days, according to Crypto Slate:
- Convex Finance: 302%
- Curve DAO Token: 305%
- IOTA: 426%
- XYO: 599%
- Hedera: 693%
And as a quick reminder of what’s possible, rewind to 2021. Though the last altcoin season ran longer than just that one year, this is what a few of the biggest winners returned in 2021:
- Avalanche: 3,335%
- Dogecoin: 3,546%
- Solana: 11,178%
- Terra: 12,967%
Now, as quickly as I write this, let’s circle back to yesterday’s Digest in which I highlighted the danger of greed/envy, which can derail your investment plan. As always, remember that return of capital is more important than return on capital.
That means altcoins are at the bottom of your list when it comes to allocating your money. Everything else gets priority: bills, savings, blue chip stocks, you name it.
However, the good news is that even a few leftover dollars have the potential to generate enormous returns.
Say you put $350 into the next “Solana,” and it climbs 10,000% in 2025. Congrats – you’re suddenly sitting on $35,000.
This is why we love altcoin season. You don’t have to bet big to win big.
Where do you start?
A basket approach is the way to go. Spread your money across roughly 10 or more altcoins. Target a mix of some of the larger altcoins with some newer, high-momentum picks.
For the largest altcoins, CoinMarketCap will rank them by size. The top five are currently: Ethereum, XRP, Tether, Solana, and BNB.
For smaller momentum picks, there are plenty of online tools that show you which coins are trending. CoinMarketCap has such a feature simply called “Trending Coins.”
As you’d expect, Luke is beginning to make moves as well. We’ll bring you more of his insights as we get them.
Bottom line: Yes, we expect more gains from Bitcoin next year. But the real wealth could come from select altcoins. It’s time to make some wise speculations in anticipation of the buying surge that history suggests is on the way.
Do it safely. Prepare for volatility. But recognize the wealth potential of altcoin season.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
