E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5154.75, up 63.25 on Friday and 23.25 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,000.75, up 351.00 on Friday and 155.00 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are pointing higher on the heels of a strong finish to last week, supported by a strong earnings report from Apple and softer economic data Thursday night into Friday’s close. Midweek, Fed Chair Powell and committee put to rest the possibility of a rate hike and sent a message by lowering the cap on Treasuries rolling off the Fed’s balance sheet from $60 billion per month down to $25 billion. Although there are some budding concerns for the consumer stoked by Starbucks’ earnings, this may be just what the Fed wanted, while earnings from not only Apple, but Amazon earlier in the week was also a bullish factor.
To start the week, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing the odds of two rate cuts this year with a 61.9% probability.
Price action in the E-mini S&P is closing in on a big level of resistance at 5192.25-5197.25, and we view a close above here as neutralizing the selling that kicked in from April 12-15th. We view a similar landmark for the E-mini NQ at 18,179. Given the aforementioned, we have taken a more Bullish Bias to start the week as long as price action holds major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5154.74-5157 and the E-mini NQ at 17,893-17,911.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 5185.50*, 5192.25-5197.25***, 5200.75-5201.75*, 5213-5218.75***, 5243.25-5246.25***
Pivot: 5166.75-5167
Support: 5154.75-5157***, 5145.50-5148.50***, 5137.25*, 5126.75-5127.75**, 5118.75**, 5104.50-5109.25***, 5100.75**, 5087-5091.50****
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,053-18,099****, 18,179***, 18,223-18,227**, 18,326-18,339***
Pivot: 18,000
Support: 17,949-17,962**, 17,893-17,911***, 17,805-17,808*, 17,743-17,793*** 17,649-17,686****
Crude Oil (June)
Last week’s close: Settled 78.11, down 0.84 on Friday and 5.74 on the week
WTI Crude Oil futures have trended with a lower high for five straight sessions and while trading below first key resistance at 79.49-79.63, it is gearing for the sixth straight session since the April 26th peak. Price action has now tested major three-star support at 78.01-78.43, aligning multiple technical indicators with the upper-end of the consolidation into mid-March. While we now hold a Neutral Bias, there is value seen here, but the market lacks positive momentum.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 79.49-79.63**, 79.87-79.90**, 80.31-80.44***, 81.24***, 81.57**, 81.80-81.93***
Pivot: 78.75-78.83
Support: 78.01-78.43***, 76.90-76.98***
Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 2308.6, down 1.0 on Friday and 38.6 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 26.69, down 0.139 on Friday and 0.845 on the week
Gold and Silver futures turned higher upon China’s open last night at 8:00 pm CT. It is important to remember China was on holiday late last week, which means a lack of response to the U.S. news, including the strength in the Japanese Yen due to the BoJ’s intervention. Overall, we were very surprised by the lack of response in precious metals to the softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report and weak ISM Services data. One may point to ISM Services Prices surging as a headwind, but we view Prices as a lag to the index.
Technically, we must see Gold chew through Wednesday’s Fed high, major three-star resistance at 2338-2339.5, and hold out above here in order to move towards beginning to neutralize the damage from the rollover early last week. Silver has cleared that Fed high and pinged settlement from last Monday, just prior to its rollover last week, at 27.66 this morning. It will be imperative for the bulls to continue to bid this rally attempt and set the tone for the week ahead. More broadly, Gold’s daily chart can be considered constructive and building out a bull flag from its mid-April peak, the coming days will be critical in continuing to form such a pattern.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 2338-2339.5***, 2347.7***, 2353-2358.9***, 2364.4-2367***
Pivot: 2330.7
Support: 2322.9-2325.3***, 2312.7-2314.5**, 2300.6-2305.8**, 2291.5-2296.2**, 2281.8-2285.2***, 2257.1***, 2246.6***, 2231.2-2238.2****
Silver (July)
Resistance: 27.66-27.76***, 27.91-27.93**, 28.02-28.22***
Pivot: 27.44
Support: 27.15-27.28***, 27.01**, 26.89-26.91**, 26.65-26.69***, 26.17-26.30****, 25.89-25.95**, 25.32-25.47***
Micro Bitcoin (May)
Last week’s close: Settled at 62,590, up 2,825 on Friday and down 1,710 on the week
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 65,335-65,435***, 66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646***
Pivot: 64,275-64,750
Support: 63,550-63,805**, 62,210-62,590***, 60,704-61,116***,59,765**, 56,472-57,355***, 55,000-55,290***, 52,240***, 47,000****’
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Originally Posted May 6, 2024 – Can the Rally Continue?
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