UBS and GLJ Research both expect Tesla to report deliveries for Q4 slightly below consensus estimates
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DELIVERIES:
UBS expects Tesla to report Q4 deliveries on January 2 and forecasts deliveries of 510,000, which would be up 5% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter. The expectation is 1% below the current consensus of estimate of 512,000, the firm tells investors in a research note. However, given the artificial intelligence-driven narrative on the stock, UBS does not believe the delivery results will be as meaningful as in the past. Based on investor conversations, it believes the buy-side expectation range is 500,000-510,000.
After having visited a large Tesla dealership in Charlotte, North Carolina, GLJ Research says the firm was “surprised by the lack of both” people there and enthusiasm from the sales rep. Based on this visit, it would say it’s more likely Tesla’s Q4 U.S. sales “disappoint vs. surprise to the upside,” adds the firm, which forecasts Q4 deliveries of 493,215. GLJ Research notes that its estimate compares to Kalshi’s current estimate of 548,000 and the consensus estimate of 512,293 units.
Click here to check out Tesla’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.
2025 BEST IDEA:
Canaccord sees Fluence Energy (FLNC) as one of the firm’s best ideas for 2025. The company raised $400M through a convert earlier in December, a “nice financial buffer in uncertain times – particularly in the sustainability ecosystem,” the firm tells investors in a research note. Canaccord says that beyond serving as a “bulwark protecting against uncertainty,” Fluence is using its balance sheet to make an “underappreciated strategic bet:” the company is securing 530Ah U.S. cells for use in the U.S. energy storage market.
If anticipated policy changes occur under the Trump administration, Fluence could see a substantial increase in its U.S. market share, contends Canaccord. The firm points out Tesla and several competitors in the U.S. energy storage sector predominantly utilize foreign cells – particularly from China – in their projects. However, two key policy changes could dramatically alter the competitive landscape: increased tariffs on Chinese cells and stricter Inflation Reduction Act rules around domestic content requirements for tax credits, contends Canaccord. If Chinese cell tariffs increase, Fluence’s systems using domestic cells will become relatively more cost-competitive, the firm says. It sees Fluence’s bet on U.S. cells as “clever, highly strategic and likely to bring with its US market share gains.”
BYD SITE HALTED:
BYD (BYDDF) has cut ties with a construction firm Jinjiang Construction Brazil after Brazilian authorities stopped construction of a new electric-vehicle plant after workers were found working and living in “slavery”-like conditions, Danny Lee of Bloomberg reports. According to a statement by Brazil’s Labor Prosecutor’s Officer, authorities rescued 163 Chinese workers building a new EV factory for BYD in Bahia and ordered a halt to construction.
The Chinese automaker BYD has since slammed reports regarding poor conditions at a Brazilian construction site where it is building a factory, arguing the allegations were aimed at ‘smearing’ China and Chinese brands, AP’s Elaine Kurtenbach reports, citing a company spokesperson. The response comes after a Brazilian task force said it had rescued 163 Chinese nationals that were working in “slavery-like” conditions at the site. “In the matter of smearing Chinese brands, smearing China, and attempting to undermine the friendship between China and Brazil, we have seen how relevant foreign forces maliciously associate and deliberately smear,” said BYD spokesperson Li Yunfei on Weibo.
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Originally Posted December 30, 2024 – Charged: Analysts see Tesla Q4 deliveries missing consensus expectations
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