1/ LME Copper Daily Chart
2/ LME Aluminum Daily Chart
3/ LME Lead Daily Chart
4/ LME Nickel Daily Chart
5/ LME Zinc Daily Chart
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LME Copper Daily Chart
LME Copper rose during the past week and nearly fulfilled the $9628 equal to Fibonacci extension of the primary wave up from $8714 (orange). This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $11104.5 (purple) and the target that must hold for the downtrend to extend in the coming weeks. This looks doubtful though given Thursday’s close above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $10000 (pink). Moreover, there are no significant reversal patterns on the daily or weekly charts at this point.
A test of $9628 is expected in the coming days and settling above this target will open the way for a confluence point at $9766 and then the $9910 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $8714 (orange). This is also the 50 percent retracement from $11104.5 (purple) and the last target protecting the $10000 swing high. Closing above $9910 will call for the $10086 larger than (1.618) target. Given the current wave structure, a solid correction is anticipated before closing above $10086. Settling above $10086 will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1104.5 at $10191.
Courtesy of TradeStation
Prices pulled back a bit on Monday and the 100-day moving average held on a closing basis on Thursday and Friday. Also, Friday’s early rise to $9599.5 may have been enough to fulfill the $9628 target. The wave down from $9599.5 warns that a test of its $9345 equal to (1.00) target might take place first. Closing below this will open the way for a potential test of $9160. This is the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $8714 (light green) and the 200-day moving average. Settling below $9150 will imply that the move up is complete and call for tests of the 62 percent retracement at $9052 and then $8850. Falling to $8850 will invalidate the wave up from $8714 that projects to $9628 and higher and challenge the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $10000.
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LME Aluminum Daily Chart
LME Aluminum settled above the $2539 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $2209.5 (purple) on Thursday. The close above $2539 was marginal though and the $2553 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $2209.5 held on a closing basis again.
Even so, closing above $2539 was bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks because this wave now favors a test of its $2670 equal to (1.00) target. Settling above $2578, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2799 (light purple), will open the way for $2670 and another significant objective at $2636 to be tested. The $2636 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2109. Settling above this would confirm a longer-term bullish outlook because this wave connects to $2892 as the equal to (1.00) target. This is also the larger than target of the wave up from $2209.5.
Courtesy of TradeStation
Although the outlook is bullish for the coming weeks, this is an area in which a solid correction might take place before the move up extends. Friday’s move down held the 100-day moving average and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2326.5 (light green). This area around $2476 held again on a closing basis Monday.
However, the move down from $2569 also helped to shape a weekly shooting star and confirm daily bearish RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2427 first. This is the 62 percent retracement from $2326.5 and 38 percent retracement from $2209.5 (light blue). A simple correction should hold $2427. Settling below this will call for key support and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2209.5 at $2351 to be challenged.
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LME Lead Daily Chart
LME Lead settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2126 (light purple) and fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the waves up from $1917 (red) and $1946 (purple). The smaller than (0.618) targets held on a closing basis, but these waves now favor lead rising to their respective $2116 and likely $2156 equal to (1.00) targets within the next few weeks.
Courtesy of TradeStation
The pullback from $2098 is likely a correction and has held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1946 (light green) and 62 percent retracement from $1997.5 (not shown) at $2038 on a closing basis so far. Settling below $2038 will call for a test of key support and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2126 (dark cyan) at $1986. Closing below $1986 will shift the odds in favor of lead falling to this wave’s $1917 equal to (1.00) target. This is also the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2259 (light blue).
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LME Nickel Daily Chart
LME Nickel completed a weekly morning star and is poised to reach the $16639 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $15600 (red). This is also the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $15665 (not shown) and 62 percent retracement of the decline from $17165 (dark red). Settling above $16639 might initially be a challenge but will open the way for the $17259 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $15600 (red) and possibly higher in the coming weeks.
Courtesy of TradeStation
The move up from $15665 might still be a correction of the decline from $17165 but $16639 must hold. Should this be the case, and nickel closes below $15950, look for a test of key support at $15522. This is the smaller (0.618) than target of the wave down from $17165 (light green) and the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave down from $21750 (green). Settling below $15522 will put the odds in favor of nickel falling to $15198 and lower.
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LME Zinc Daily Chart
LME Zinc’s primary wave up from $2549 (purple) settled above its $2924 smaller than (0.618) target on Monday and Thursday. Therefore, the outlook for the coming weeks is bullish because this wave now favors a test of its $3075 equal to (1.00) target. The connection to $3075 is made through a confluent $3017 target. Settling above $3075 might initially be a challenge but would call for the $3148 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2215 (red) to be challenged.
Courtesy of TradeStation
Nonetheless, the move up is struggling to sustain a close above $2924. Daily bearish RSI and Stochastic divergences and the wave down from $2977.5 (light blue) indicate a test of $2820 will probably take place first. A simple correction will hold $2820 because this is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2549 (dark cyan). Closing below $2820 will call for an extended correction to challenge $2755, which is expected to hold. Settling below $2755 will warn that the move up is failing and call for key support and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3022 (light green) at $2698 to be challenged.
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Originally posted 24th September 2024
