1/ The Best Day for VIX since June 2022
2/ Positive Divergence
3/ Yield Curve Close to Normalization
4/ Changes in Risk Off / Risk On?
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1/
VIX jumps +22%
The last time the VIX had more than a 22% price change from one session to another occurred on June 13, 2022. On this date, the VIX surged by 22.89% in response to heightened market volatility and investor concerns, primarily due to rising inflation and impending interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Courtesy of StockCharts.com
$VIX jumps to 18.04 (+22.55%) and gets closer to April’s high. This spike reflects increased market uncertainty, typically driven by investor fears and market volatility. This significant increase aligns with recent market developments, including mixed earnings reports from major tech companies and economic data suggesting a slowdown.
The weekly and monthly MACD crossover confirms its long-term momentum shift. The 20 level stands as the resistance line. Let’s see if it can hold.
2/
Positive Divergence
The KRE ETF has been under pressure due to concerns about the health of regional banks, which are more exposed to domestic economic issues and have been facing challenges such as tighter monetary policies and potential loan defaults.
KRE’s performance has been lagging behind SPY, reflecting broader market trends and investor sentiment favoring larger. The KRE/SPY ratio has seen significant volatility. Historically, the ratio tends to rise when regional banks outperform the broader market, and it falls when they underperform.
Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Regional banks, and by extension KRE, are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. The KRE ETF has been testing critical support levels recently. A breach below these levels could signal further downside.
Conversely, holding above support could indicate a potential bottoming out and a reversal. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) for KRE in oversold territory could suggest a potential buying opportunity, while an overbought RSI might indicate the need for caution.
Currently, we are observing a positive divergence between a key technical indicator and the price of the asset. Despite the price making new lows in early June, the indicator has started to form higher lows, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. This scenario has been identified twice since 2007, each time resulting in an upward rally in the asset’s price.
The price has recently experienced a positive jump and is nearing the highs seen in January.
3/
Yield Curve
The U.S. yield curve remains significantly inverted, a condition it has maintained for nearly two years, making it the longest yield curve inversion in history.
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of upcoming recessions. However, this current inversion has defied expectations, as the anticipated recession has not yet materialized. This anomaly can be attributed to several factors, including strong consumer spending, a robust labor market, and substantial fiscal stimulus measures that have supported the economy despite rising interest rates and inflation
Courtesy of StockCharts.com
If the normalization is driven by a deep recession and aggressive Fed rate cuts, the initial market reaction might be negative, with equities potentially underperforming until there are clearer signs of economic recovery. Transitions in yield curve shape can be accompanied by market volatility as investors adjust their expectations and reallocate assets.
Historically, the normalization of the yield curve after an inversion has often been followed by economic recovery and market rallies. A move towards normalization would suggest that inflation is under control and the economy is on firmer footing.
Financials, especially banks, tend to benefit from a steepening yield curve as their net interest margins expand (the difference between what banks pay on deposits and earn on loans). This could lead to outperformance in the financial sector.
4/
Risk Off / Risk On?
With most indices down and a significant jump in the VIX, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, traditionally seen as safe-haven currencies, have maintained their strength. This indicates that some investors are still seeking safety amid ongoing global economic concerns.
Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Bank of Japan’s continued dovish policy and yield curve control measures exert downward pressure on the JPY. Despite this, the bias for USD/JPY remains slightly bullish. However, caution is warranted as the price has been rejected for the third time by the resistance zone around 160.
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Originally posted 26th July 2024
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