Fourth Of July Hot Dog Eating Contest: Betting Odds Favor New Champion As Joey Chestnut Sits Out

One of the great American traditions, the Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest, will have a different feel in 2024 as Joey Chestnut will not participate for the first time in years.

With Chestnut out, the betting odds look significantly different.

What Happened: Sixteen-time champ Chestnut won’t compete in this year’s Fourth of July event due to a dispute over his sponsorship by plant-based food company Impossible Foods.

The contest, which is sponsored by Nathan’s Famous NATH, will be very different in 2024 with Chestnut sitting out. This could lead to lower viewership for media rights partner The Walt Disney Company DIS as well.

Disney will air the women’s competition at 10:45 a.m. ET on Thursday on ESPN3 and the men’s competition at 12 p.m. ET on Thursday on ESPN2.

While Chestnut won’t compete in the Fourth of July contest, he will face off against former champion Takeru Kobayashi in a Netflix Inc NFLX special later this year on Sept. 2.

Read Also: Netflix Vs. Nathan’s Famous: How Streaming Giant And Food Company Backed By Bill Gates Could Eat Hot Dog Company’s Lunch In Joey Chestnut Battle

Betting Odds: Here are the betting odds from DraftKings Inc DKNG for the men’s contest:

• Geoffrey Esper: -115
• James Webb: +175
• Nick Wehry: +750
• Patrick Bertoletti: +1,000
• Field (Anyone not listed here): +2,500
• Gideon Oji: +4,000
• Derek Hendrickson: +7,500
• Darrien Thomas: +7,500
• Max Stanford: +7,500
• George Chiger: +7,500

Bettors can also bet on the combined hot dogs eaten by Webb and Esper with the over/under set at 99.5. Esper’s over/under is set at 49.5 in the contest.

The betting odds show a two-man race between Esper and Webb. Esper has been runner-up to Chestnut in each of the last two years. In 2023, Esper ate 49 hot dogs, while Webb finished third last year with 47 hot dogs eaten.

Here are the betting odds for the women’s contest:

• Miki Sudo: -900
• Mayoi Ebihara: +500
• Michelle Lesco: +2,200
• Katie Prettyman: +5,000
• Field: +5,000
• Larell Marie Mele: +10,000

Another over/under bet combines the total for the men’s favorite Esper and the women’s favorite Miki Sudo and is set at 89.5.

Sudo is the heavy favorite to win her 10^th championship in the women’s event, which began in 2011.

Sudo has won all but one of the women’s Fourth of July hot dog eating contests since 2014, with the lone exception being in 2021 when she sat out due to pregnancy.

In 2023, Sudo ate 39.5 hot dogs. Sudo holds the women’s Fourth of July record at 48.5.

Tainted Championship?: This year will mark the first time in 23 years that neither Kobayashi or Chestnut competed in the event.

Chestnut has won the event every year since 2007, except in 2015 when he was defeated by Matt Stonie. That year, Chestnut ate 60 hot dogs, while Stonie managed to eat 62.

In 15 of his 17 appearances at the Fourth of July contest, Chestnut has consumed at least 60 hot dogs. On six occasions, he has eaten 70 or more. There were only two instances where Chestnut ate fewer than 60 hot dogs, and he won the contest both times.

Those figures would be enough for Chestnut to beat the competitors in this year’s competition. Esper has a career high of 50 set in 2021. In last year’s competition, both Esper and Webb failed to clear the 50 mark.

With Chestnut absent due to a decision by the Major League Eating organization rather than by his own choice, some might argue that this year’s winner should have an asterisk next to their victory.

This year’s winner will likely be less recognized than past years as they ultimately aren’t beating a legend like Kobayashi or Chestnut, but instead beating lesser competition.

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