The head-to-head matchup between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could come down to how several swing states fall in the 2024 presidential election.
A new poll shows which candidate is making up ground in the key seven states.
What Happened: Harris has been trending up in 2024 election polls of nationally registered voters, posting her largest lead in the weekly Morning Consult poll this week in the head-to-head matchup.
A new poll of swing state voters, which covers seven key battleground states, could show a different picture.
Here are the results from the September Emerson College swing state polls with the results from August in parentheses:
- Arizona: Trump 49% (50%), Harris 48% (47%)
- Georgia: Trump 50% (48%), Harris 47% (49%)
- Michigan: Harris 49% (50%), Trump 47% (47%)
- Nevada: Trump 48% (48%), Harris 48% (49%)
- North Carolina: Harris 49% (48%), Trump 48% (49%)
- Pennsylvania: Trump 48% (48%), Harris 47% (48%)
- Wisconsin: Trump 49% (49%), Harris 48% (48%)
The results show that Trump leads Harris in four of the seven states and is tied with the vice president in one state. Harris leads Trump in two states. Each candidate led three states in the August poll.
Trump gained support in one state and lost support in two states, with four states remaining the same from August. Harris gained support in two states and lost support in four states.
“There has been marginal movement in the presidential election since the late August Emerson swing state polls before the presidential debate,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
Did You Know?
Why It’s Important: The seven swing states in question together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven states above were won by Biden in the 2020 election with Trump winning North Carolina. Several of the states were flipped from Trump’s win in the 2016 election.
A Marist poll recently found how swing state voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would vote in the 2024 election if it were held today. The race for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was close with Trump and Harris tied in Pennsylvania and Harris leading by one point in Wisconsin.
In the state of Michigan, Harris had a five-point lead over Trump.
The three states together represent 44 electoral votes and could prove important in the 2024 election. Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to sweep the three states since Ronald Reagan in 1984, according to the New York Post. Biden won all three of the states in the 2020 election.
All seven swing states see voters pick the economy as the top issue ahead of the election. Immigration, threats to democracy and housing affordability are also top voter issues in swing states.
With less than two months until the 2024 election, the race between Harris and Trump remains close and swing states continue to be one of the most monitored polling items given their importance.
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