Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head poll of likely voters with less than 50 days to go until the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Since the Sept. 10 presidential debate, Harris has led in most head-to-head polls against the former president and has been given an edge in betting odds and prediction markets.
Polls pointed to Harris being crowned the winner of the first presidential debate between her and the former president. Trump declined to do more debates ahead of the election and said he won the first meeting between the two candidates.
A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris’ lead growing after the presidential debate.
The new poll shows the following results from voters, with the results from the Sept. 17 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 50% (51%)
- Donald Trump: 45% (45%)
- Someone Else: 2% (2%)
- Don’t Know: 3% (2%)
The poll found that 94% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, in line with last week’s poll. The poll also found 91% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, which was in line with last week’s poll.
Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Sept. 17 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 46% (47%)
- Donald Trump: 42% (41%)
- Someone Else: 6% (6%)
- Don’t Know: 6% (6%)
The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 age voters demographic, leading 54% to 42%. The 12-point lead is down from last week’s 15-point lead, but well ahead of past leads of 10 points and five points last month.
Among Black voters, Harris leads of 80% to 16%. This marks the highest support for Harris since polling began and the lowest for Trump in the demographic in the 2024 election cycle.
Did You Know?
Why It’s Important: There is good and bad news for both candidates in the latest poll.
Harris’ record lead of six points last week drops to a five-point lead. Harris also saw her lead in the 18-34 age demographic and among Independent voters fall, which could be welcome signs for Trump.
The latest poll shows Harris with a favorable rating of 53%, in line with last week’s poll and tied for the largest rating for Harris in the 2024 election cycle. With an unfavorable rating of 44 points, Harris’ net favorability hits a record +9 points.
For comparison, Trump has a 45% favorable rating and 53% unfavorable rating, good for a net favorability of -8 points. Trump’s net favorability has often been negative during the election cycle.
When it comes to running mates, Harris’ vice-presidential pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ranks significantly ahead of Trump’s vice-presidential pick Sen. J.D. Vance in net favorability. Walz has a net favorability of +9 while Vance has a net favorability of -10.
With less than two months to go in the 2024 election, the race remains close and the five-point and growing lead could be a sign of a potential shift in how close the race is. But it’s important to remember that polls are not entirely perfect.
Biden had an eight-point lead over Trump two months before the 2020 election and ended up winning the popular vote by four points.
While Harris leads in several key demographics such as independents and young voters, the 2024 election will likely come down to swing states.
Morning Consult recently released the results of likely voters in swing states and several other states expected to be close. Here are the current results:
- Arizona: 49% Trump, 47% Harris
- Georgia: 48% Harris, 48% Trump
- Michigan: 49% Harris, 46% Trump
- Nevada: 48% Harris, 48% Trump
- North Carolina: 48% Harris, 48% Trump
- Pennsylvania: 49% Harris, 46% Trump
- Wisconsin: 49% Harris, 46% Trump
In the key seven swing states, Harris leads in three states, Trump leads in one state and the two candidates are tied in three states.
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