The head-to-head race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris grew even closer in the last Morning Consult poll ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Harris maintains a lead over Trump in many election polls as Election Day nears, but her odds in prediction markets and betting odds have trailed the former president by a wide margin.
A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris’ lead dropping, continuing a recent string of a lead of six points shrinking.
The new poll shows the following results from voters, with results from the Oct. 29 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 49% (50%)
- Donald Trump: 47% (47%)
- Someone Else: 1% (1%)
- Don’t Know: 2% (2%)
Harris’ lead over Trump dropped to two points, down from a three-point lead in last week’s poll. The vice president has now seen her lead drop in three straight weeks among the Morning Consult polls. The lead is also down from a six-point lead Harris had several weeks ago.
Did You Know?
Swing States Still Toss-Up: Morning Consult also published the final results of its state-by-state election guide, which includes how voters in seven key swing states are leaning ahead of Election Day.
Here are the leaders in the seven states:
- Arizona: Tied
- Georgia: Trump leads by two points
- Michigan: Harris leads by one point
- Nevada: Tied
- North Carolina: Trump leads by two points
- Pennsylvania: Tied
- Wisconsin: Tied
The seven swing states in question together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven states above were won by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election with Trump winning North Carolina. Several states flipped from Trump’s win in the 2016 election.
It could be good news for Harris to see four states tied and leading one state as some swing state polls have shown a more dominant position for Trump.
The bad news is using math and the current path to 270 electoral college votes from 270towin, Harris could be in trouble.
Based on the 270towin map, Harris is expected to get 226 electoral college votes based on state leanings, with Trump getting 219 votes. The remaining 93 votes come from the swing states up for grabs.
With Trump getting the 219 plus Georgia’s 16 votes and North Carolina’s 16 votes based on the poll above, he would be at 251. Harris would be at 241 with the 226 and the 15 from Michigan.
Pennsylvania is the key swing state worth 19 votes. Based on the math above, Trump would win if he secures Pennsylvania and he could still lose Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump could also win if he loses Pennsylvania and Nevada and wins Arizona and Wisconsin.
For Harris, she would need to secure Michigan as predicted and win Pennsylvania to get to 260, but still need Arizona or Wisconsin to win the 2024 election.
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