A week after having a record lead over Donald Trump in a weekly head-to-head poll of likely voters, Vice President Kamala Harris sees her lead shrink with less than one month until the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Harris has had the lead over Trump in many election polls and until recent weeks saw her election betting odds and prediction market odds top the former president.
A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris’ lead dropping from a record high six points last week. Harris maintains a lead, something she has been able to accomplish most weeks since President Joe Biden dropped out of the election race.
The new poll shows the following results from voters, with results from the Oct. 8 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 50% (51%)
- Donald Trump: 46% (45%)
- Someone Else: 2% (2%)
- Don’t Know: 2% (2%)
The poll also found that 94% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, in line with last week’s poll. The poll also found 92% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, in line with last week’s poll.
Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Oct. 8 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 46% (45%)
- Donald Trump: 42% (44%)
- Someone Else: 6% (5%)
- Don’t Know: 6% (5%)
The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 age voters demographic, leading 55% to 43%. The 12-point lead is higher than last week’s 10-point advantage, but down from a lead of 15 points three weeks ago.
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Why It’s Important: While Harris sees her lead drop from six points to four points, she still maintains an edge over the former president in the national poll of likely voters.
The vice president also saw her lead in the key Independent voters and young voters demographics grow from the prior poll. Independent voters remain a key demographic for the 2024 election and Harris has a four-point advantage after last week saw the vice president have a narrow one-point advantage.
The newest poll could show that Harris’ media blitz that included appearances on the Call Her Daddy podcast, “60 Minutes,” “The Howard Stern Show,” “The View” and taking part in a Town Hall may not have paid off in gaining support from voters.
With a gain in Independent and young voters, the media blitz may be working in gaining support from key demographics according the results though.
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