The head-to-head battle between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is heating up with nearly one month until the 2024 presidential election voting day.
A new poll of nationally registered voters shows an extremely tight race.
What Happened: Since becoming the Democratic Party candidate after President Joe Biden stepped down, Harris has helped the party see a boost in election polls and betting odds ahead of the 2024 election.
A new Emerson College poll of nationally registered voters shows a close race and several trends to watch.
Here are the results in the latest poll, which was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 1:
- Kamala Harris: 50%
- Donald Trump: 48%
- Someone Else: 1%
- Undecided: 1%
“The margin between the candidates has stayed the same since early September, when Harris held 49% and Trump 47%,” Emerson College polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
Kimball said Harris’s small edge is less than Biden’s four-point lead in the Emerson national poll at the same point of time in the 2020 election.
The latest poll shows 50% of voters have a favorable view of Harris, while 50% have an unfavorable view of the current vice president.
The poll shows that 49% of voters have a favorable view of Trump, while 51% have an unfavorable view of the former president.
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Why It’s Important: The latest poll shows a closer race between Harris and Trump than others and Trump with a higher favorability rating, which could be positives for the former president.
Other items likely helping Trump are the facts that the economy (41%) and immigration (17%) are the top two issues from voters. Trump has often gotten better ratings on these items than Harris, who is currently in office.
The poll found that housing affordability (6%), which is a key issue in Harris’ campaign, ranked lower than other topics. Potential good news for Harris is the poll found that 53% of voters support the idea of financial assistance to first-time home buyers, while 35% oppose the idea and 12% neither support or oppose.
The Emerson College poll shows a stark difference in voters’ age and their preferred candidate. Here are the results by age group for the two candidates, with the remaining percentage going to someone else or undecided as their answers:
- 18-29: Harris 63%, Trump 36%
- 30-39: Harris 50%, Trump 48%
- 40-49: Harris 53%, Trump 43%
- 50-59: Harris 45%, Trump 53%
- 60-69: Harris 43%, Trump 56%
- 70 and Older: Harris 46%, Trump 51%
The poll shows that Harris has 50% or more support from three voter groups aged 18 to 49, but sees her support drop as the ages go up from 50 and above.
Outside of this poll, the major concern for Harris is likely her lack of support in several key swing states.
As Benzinga recently reported, new polls of voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina show Trump leading or tied.
In a poll of Pennsylvania voters, Trump and Harris are tied at 48% each. In a poll of Arizona voters, Trump leads with 50% of the vote with Harris having 47% of the vote. In a poll of North Carolina voters, Trump leads with 49% of the vote with Harris having 48% of the vote.
Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are three of the key seven swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election and have 11, 16 and 19 electoral college votes, respectively.
With the other four swing states of Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, the seven states represent 93 electoral college votes.
Biden won many of these swing states, including flipping some from Republican to Democrat from the 2016 to 2020 election to be victorious in the last presidential election. In a close race that many election polls and election forecasters show, the swing states could remain a key element in securing a victory.
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