Harris Vs. Trump: Vice President Leads Former President By 5 Points, Walz Favorability Rating Tops Vance Ahead Of VP Debate

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head poll of likely voters with less than 50 days to go until the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Harris maintains a five-point lead over Trump and continues to lead betting odds and prediction markets against the former president with Tuesday’s vice president debate a potential catalyst for the 2024 election.

A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris’ lead at five points for the week. The new poll shows the following results from voters, with the results from the Sept. 24 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 51% (50%)
• Donald Trump: 46% (45%)
• Someone Else: 2% (2%)
• Don’t Know: 2% (3%)

The poll found that 94% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, in line with last week’s poll. The poll also found 92% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, up one percentage point from last week’s poll.

Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Sept. 24 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 45% (46%)
• Donald Trump: 44% (42%)
• Someone Else: 5% (6%)
• Don’t Know: 5% (6%)

The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 age voters demographic, leading 53% to 43%. The 10-point lead is down from last week’s 12-point lead and a lead of 15-points two weeks ago.  

Among Black voters, Harris leads by 77% to 19%.

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Why It’s Important: Trump showed gains among Black voters, Independent voters and Republican voters on the week, which is potentially bad news for Harris.

The good news for Harris and running mate Tim Walz is that the favorable ratings of the Democratic Party candidates continue to rank ahead of their counterparts.

The latest poll shows Harris with a favorable rating of 52%, down one point from last week’s poll and a record high. With an unfavorable rating of 46%, Harris’ net favorability is +6 pints, down from last week’s record +9 points.

For comparison, Trump has a 44% favorable rating and 54% unfavorable rating, compared to 45% and 53%, respectively, in last week’s poll. Trump’s net favorability is -10 points, down from last week’s -9 points. Trump’s net favorability has often been negative during the election cycle.

When it comes to running mates, Harris’ vice-presidential pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ranks significantly ahead of Trump’s vice-presidential pick Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance in net favorability. Walz has a net favorability of +6 while Vance has a net favorability of -9. The net favorability ratings were +9 and -10 respectively in last week’s poll

Walz has a favorable rating of 45% and unfavorable rating of 39%. Vance has a favorable rating of 39% and an unfavorable rating of 48%.

Walz and Vance will face off Tuesday night in a vice president debate that airs at 9 p.m. ET on CBS, a unit of Paramount Global PARAPARAA.

CBS News begins coverage of the debate at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and affiliate networks. The debate and coverage can also be streamed on Paramount+, CBSNews.com and YouTube. Paramount will allow simulcasting by other networks.

The debate will be 90 minutes in length with two planned four-minute commercial breaks. The candidates are not allowed to interact with their campaign teams during the commercial breaks.

Prediction market Polymarket lists a 73% chance that Walz is the winner of the debate based on YouGov surveys, which could strengthen Harris’ lead in coming election polls.

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