PMIs, UMich Revision Turn the Vessel Around: Jan. 24, 2025

Stocks tapped another all time-high this morning before a pair of weaker-than-expected economic reports derailed the rally and sent equities into the red. The US flash PMIs depicted decelerating economic growth this month while affordability pressures and mounting unemployment worries led to an unfavorable revision to January’s UMich consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, an uptick in stateside existing home sales didn’t counter the anxiety stemming from the aforementioned data. Turning elsewhere, the European economy continues limping along while Japan’s accelerating price pressures caused the BoJ to hike its key benchmark last night. Rate watchers are penciling in one more by year-end.

Purchasing Managers Portray a Slowing Economy

US economic activity slowed this month despite an elevated degree of business optimism amidst robust hiring trends, according to January’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from S&P Global. The services PMI decelerated from 56.8 to 52.8, well above the contraction-expansion threshold of 50 but significantly beneath the median estimate of 56.5. But the manufacturing segment rose from 49.4 to 50.1, exceeding the 49.7 projection. Inflationary pressures were a common worry across both major sectors, increasing at the fastest pace in four months, however, as rising invoices for materials, supplies and wages were met with continued concerns about a labor shortage.

US Home Sales Pick Up

The pace of existing home sales expanded at its fastest pace since February 2024 last month, as strong employment growth, real income gains and rising inventories supported transactions. The 4.24 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) sold, a 2.2% month over month (m/m) rate increase, arrived above projections calling for 4.19 million and the 4.15 million reported in November. Transactions were supported by both the condominium/cooperative segment and the single-family component, with those areas growing sales 5.1% and 1.9% m/m. Most regions participated in the progress with the Northeast, South and Midwest sporting gains of 3.9%, 3.2% and 2.6%. Conversely, the Midwest was a drag, sliding 1% m/m. Despite the notable progress from October to year-end, the annual pace of transactions at 4.06 million was the lowest since 1995. But the annual median sales price of $407,500 set a record high.

Fears Over Inflation and Jobs Ding Sentiment

January’s University of Michigan (UMich) consumer sentiment report was revised downward from 73.2 to 71.1 on worries of continued affordability pressures and reduced hiring. Inflation expectations over five years were lowered from 3.3% to 3.2% though, while price pressure projections for the next 12 months remained steady at 3.3%. The reduced five-year outlook did modestly offset weaker views regarding both current conditions and the future, which caused the lighter headline.

Corporations Report Mixed Fourth-Quarter Results

The shift to clean energy is expected to weigh on freight railroad earnings while a glut of semiconductors for industrial and automotive applications is creating a headwind for Texas Instruments (TX). More broadly, household spending was strong in the fourth quarter, according to American Express (AXP) while consumers haven’t balked at higher fees from Verizon Communications (VZ). Those are a few takeaways from the following earnings highlights:

• Freight railroad operator CSX Corp.’s (CSX) fourth-quarter earnings and revenue fell below expectations. Revenue dropped 4% year over year (y/y) with the company collecting lower fuel surcharges and experiencing a decline in coal shipping. CSX also faced lingering challenges from the hurricanes in the Southeast. In the current quarter, it anticipates that revenue will experience a $200 million impact from lower fuel surcharges and a decline in coal shipments due to mine production outages and the retirement of certain power plants.
• Texas Instruments’ top-and bottom-line results surpassed expectations, but excess inventory of automotive and industrial chips among its clients resulted in the company issuing guidance that fell below analysts’ expectations. The quarterly beat occurred despite Texas Instruments earnings per share (EPS) and revenues sinking 13% and 2% y/y. Furthermore, the midpoint of its guidance for those metrics of $1.05 and $3.9 billion disappointed investors with Wall Street estimating results of $1.17 and $3.85 billion.
• American Express’ earnings exceeded estimates and revenue matched the consensus forecast. Its fourth quarter capped a year of record spending by its credit card holders, increased credit card fees, and higher net interest income. Fourth-quarter revenue net of interest expenses climbed y/y from $15.79 billion to $17.17 billion. The midpoint of its full-year earnings guidance roughly matched analyst expectations.
• Verizon Communications’ earnings and revenue exceeded estimates. Bumping up fees resulted in wireless service revenues climbing 3.1% y/y and customers upgrading phones and other products drove a marginal increase in device sales. Verizon also captured nearly 1 million new subscribers for mobile and broadband services. For the full year, the company anticipates EPS to range from $4.59 to $4.73 while analysts expected guidance of $4.72.

Inflation Prompts BoJ Rate Hike

Accelerating inflation in Japan led to a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike last night and Governor Ueda is committed to more if the economy continues growing alongside compensation trends. Prices rose 0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y in December, picking up steam from November’s 0.4% and 2.9%. Similarly, core charges rose 3% y/y, faster than the 2.7% rate in the previous month. The 0.5% BoJ rate is the highest it’s been since October of 2008 and is being calibrated alongside wage negotiations that are looking likely to raise between 5% and 6% per annum.

EU & UK Barely Expand

European economic growth stayed nearly flat this month as weak orders and higher prices continue to weigh on overall activity, according to S&P Global’s flash PMIs. The services and manufacturing gauges came in at 51.4 and 46.1, compared to December’s 51.6 and 45.2 as well as near estimates of 51.5 and 45.3. During the month, an improvement in Germany’s figures countered weakness from France. Business sentiment is cautious, however, as trade uncertainty amidst fragile US-China relations cloud the outlook. 

The UK’s flash PMI figures were similar to the EU’s, coming in at 51.2 for services and 48.2 for manufacturing, exceeding the median estimates of 50.9 and 47 as well as last month’s 51.1 and 47. Meanwhile, separate January reports on consumer confidence from GfK and the retails sales figures from CBI reflected declines to -22  and -24, worse than the -18 and -5 expected and the -17 and -15 from December. Weak demand and waning sentiment have been weighing on the British economy. 

Canada New Housing Prices Decline

Prices for new housing declined 0.1% last month, missing the analysts target of a 0.2% increase and November’s 0.1% gain. However, of the 27 metropolitan areas surveyed for the New Housing Price Index, 13 were unchanged while 7 headed northward. Broadly speaking, price declines were driven by negotiations with buyers and increased incentives from sellers. A y/y view paints a more optimistic picture with prices up 0.1%. Price declines during the 12-month period were associated with regions that had larger inventory.

But Canada’s Manufacturing Sales Grow

Manufacturing sales rose 0.6% m/m in December with the largest increases in transactions occurring in petroleum and coal followed by certain food sectors, according to estimates from Statistics Canada. Manufacturing sales climbed 0.8% in November.

Singapore Industrial Production Contracts

Singapore’s industrial production dipped 0.7% in December, which was better than estimates for a 1.2% drop but a reversal from Novembers 1.7% gain. When excluding biomedical manufacturing, output was even worse, falling 5.3%. On a y/y basis, the transportation and engineering category expanded 16% with higher activity at shipyards. Chemicals reported the smallest gain at 3.1%.

Week Ends with Sluggish Trading

US Markets are sluggish to finish off the week with major equity benchmarks near their flatlines while the dollar and interest rates offer some relief to stock investors. The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices are up 0.1% each while the Dow Jones Industrial and Nasdaq 100 gauges are both lower by 0.1%. Sectoral breadth is more encouraging with 7 out of 11 segments trading higher and being led by utilities, communication services and real estate; they’re flying north by 0.8%, 0.7% and 0.7%. To the downside, energy, technology and consumer discretionary are the laggards, losing 0.5%, 0.2% and 0.2%. Treasurys are helping the investing landscape with the 2- and 10-year maturities changing hands at 4.25% and 4.62%, 4 and 3 basis points (bps) lighter on the session. Softer borrowing costs, loftier rates in Japan and a modest easing in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are weighing on the greenback, as its index sheds 74 bps. The US currency is depreciating versus all of its major counterparts, including the euro, pound sterling, franc, yen, yuan and Aussie and Canadian tenders. Commodities are tilted bullishly against this backdrop as silver, gold, crude oil and copper climb 1.1%, 0.7%, 0.3% and 0.1%, but lumber is bucking the trend; it’s lower by 0.2%. WTI is trading at $74.55 per barrel and is on track for its first weekly drop of the year as “drill baby drill” lifts supply prospects.

Investors Look Ahead to a Busy Week

As we close out this week and move toward the final five-day stretch of the month on Monday, there’s plenty of central banking developments and economic data releases on the horizon. Market participants will be eagerly awaiting commentary from the Fed at its Wednesday meeting especially as it relates to President Trump demanding that rates drop immediately. A pause is largely expected from the Fed. Meanwhile, we’ll also get rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, with both expected to drop key policy rates by a quarter-point. Furthermore, fourth-quarter GDP figures are set to be released for the US, the EU and Canada while the stateside economic calendar also features new home sales, durable goods, home prices, consumer confidence, a few Fed regional surveys, wholesale/retail inventories, pending home sales, unemployment claims, the employment cost index, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be released in the monthly personal income and outlays report. Finally, the foreign calendar includes Hong Kong’s balance of trade, Canada’s wholesale trade figures, Singapore’s business confidence, credit statistics, PPI and export/import prices, Aussie CPI, PPI and import/export prices, Japan’s consumer confidence, housing starts, retail sales, Tokyo CPI and industrial production, South Korea balance of trade and more. Some of the incoming US data releases have Forecast Contracts associated with them, although the GDP instrument reflects the final figure, not the first estimate that will be released this Thursday. Please see below and have a good weekend.

Source: ForecastEx

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here

Go Source