ZINGER KEY POINTS
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit fresh record highs, rebounding from April’s dip.
- Softer-than-expected inflation and cooler retail sales boost rate cut expectations.
A softer-than-expected April inflation report and cooler retail sales data sparked broad-based rallies in risky assets Wednesday, as traders grew more confident in the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year.
Both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 indices opened the session at fresh record highs, completing their rebound after April’s temporary dip.
Chart of The Day: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Rise To All-Time Highs As Inflation Looks Less Scary
What Happened:
The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed from 3.5% to 3.4% year-over-year in April 2024, matching estimates. On a monthly basis, it decelerated from 0.4% to 0.3%.
When excluding energy and food items, core inflation cooled from 3.8% to 3.6% year-over-year, as expected, hitting the lowest level in three years.
Simultaneously, the April’s retail sales report indicated a flat monthly change, marking a sharp deceleration from the downwardly revised 0.6% surge in March, and notably below the expected 0.4%.
Why it matters:
Before Wednesday’s data, traders had anticipated about 50 basis points of rate cuts in the fed funds rate by year-end.
The benign inflation report breaks a concerning three-month streak of higher-than-expected inflation readings and reignites hopes of a steady return to the Fed’s 2% target.
Traders are currently assigning a 73% chance of a first rate cut in September, up from the 62% one a day earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Overall money markets currently factor in 55 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, indicating increasing investor bets on a looser Fed policy going forward.
Market reactions:
Rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yields tumbled by 8 basis points to 4.73%, breaking below the crucial 200-day moving average.
Sector-wise, real estate stocks rallied 1.7%.
Energy stocks were the major laggards, down 1.4%.
Blue-chip stocks inched 0.3% higher.
Small caps outperformed larger cap stocks up 1.2%, early April levels.
Bitcoin rallied over 4%.
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Originally Posted May 15, 2024 – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Hit Record Highs As Benign Inflation Data Supports Fed Rate Cut Prospects
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