IBKR Forecast Trader participants are continuing to increase their expectations of Donald Trump winning the White House. The shift occurs as former president Trump gains for the fourth-consecutive trading day with his odds having increased to 53%. In fact, Forecast Trader contracts pointed to a 52% chance of Harris capturing the Oval Office last Wednesday. Projections of the country’s vice president being promoted to the executive position then declined to 51%, 50%, 49% and 47% during the last four business days.
Broad surveys of voters reflect a neck-and-neck race based on the electoral college, with swing states largely undecided. Indeed, the race is likely to be determined by just Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada, which carry 19, 16, 16, 15, 11, 10, 10 and 6 electoral points. With Trump carrying roughly 219 points based on current projections and needing another 51 to win, a combination of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina will print his ticket back to the Oval Office. If Trump loses those three states, however, he would need to win Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada to secure victory.
For Harris, she has 215 electoral votes secured based on current polls and would need to win Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and one of the following: Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Nevada to claim the Oval Office. If Harris loses in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, she has no path to victory.
Source: RealClearPolitics (RCP). Map image was derived from the RCP website on October 15, 2024
While the two candidates are in a tight race, their economic policies vary significantly. Harris has proposed raising taxes on big businesses and Americans who make more than $400,000 a year, while she’s also mentioned taxing unrealized capital gains. She has also proposed increasing child tax credits and providing federal assistance for first-time homebuyers. Harris has also said she will implement laws to prevent price gouging on groceries. Regarding trade, she appears to embrace using targeted penalties rather than a blanket approach, while she maintains her position as an immigration dove.
Trump, for his part, has proposed tax reductions and regulatory relaxations in hopes that the policies will produce sustainable economic growth. They would include an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. He believes that capital expenditures and foreign direct investment would offset the impact on federal revenue. He maintains he will ease housing price pressures by enacting tight border policies. He has also proposed imposing tariffs as high as 20% on most imported goods and substantially higher fees on products from China, a change he believes would bolster American manufacturing and competitiveness.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Source: ForecastEx
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