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Calls for President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election are growing, with key figures such as former President Barack Obama and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi privately holding talks of a possible move by the president.
While Biden remains in the presidential race, a new poll shows his opponent’s lead is growing.
What Happened: For months, election polls showed a close race between Biden and former President Donald Trump. Since the first 2024 presidential debate, Trump gained in polls and betting odds from sportsbooks and prediction markets.
A new updated Morning Consult poll of nationally registered voters showed Trump growing his lead over Biden in the weeks after the first 2024 presidential debate and since the assassination attempt on the former president.
The new poll shows the following results from voters polled July 15 to July 17, with the results from the July 9 poll in parentheses:
- Joe Biden: 42% (42%)
- Donald Trump: 46% (44%)
- Someone Else: 8% (9%)
- Don’t Know: 5% (5%)
Of the Democratic voters polled, 85% have Biden as their top pick. That’s in line with the previous poll. Ninety-one percent of Republican voters polled have Trump as their top pick, which is up one percentage point from the previous poll.
Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 pick as follows, with the July 2 results in parentheses:
- Joe Biden: 32% (33%)
- Donald Trump: 38% (36%)
- Someone Else: 18% (19%)
- Don’t Know: 12% (12%)
Why It’s Important: Biden continues to lose support in the weekly Morning Consult poll after the first presidential debate.
Biden was either ahead or tied with Trump for several weeks leading up to the first debate but fell behind the polls afterward.
The latest poll shows Trump with a four-point lead, marking his largest lead in the head-to-head poll since February. Trump’s lead is one percentage point off of his high of a five-point lead in January in the head-to-head Morning Consult poll.
Voters were also asked who they would vote for in a hypothetical matchup of Vice President Kamala Harris against Trump.
Harris had 45% of the vote compared to 46% for Trump in the poll, ranking ahead of Biden. Here’s how Harris fared in several key demographics in the head-to-head matchup.
- 18-34-year-old voters: 43% Harris, 46% Trump (42% Biden, 46% Trump)
- Black voters: 62% Harris, 27% Trump (62% Biden, 27% Trump)
- Hispanic voters: 43% Harris, 48% Trump (41% Biden, 53% Trump)
Harris fared better than Biden in the main categories based on her overall voter percentage and margin ahead of or behind Trump.
Along with trailing Trump by four points, the latest poll also shows plenty of concern for the president’s campaign.
After having a better net favorability rating for nine straight weeks, Biden now trails Trump for a second straight week. Biden’s recent streak was his longest, dating back to April 2023.
Biden also has a lower net buzz rating than Trump, which is ranked by the percent of voters who heard something positive about a candidate and the percent of voters who heard something negative about a candidate.
Biden has trailed Trump in the net buzz rankings for three straight weeks, which are the only weeks he has trailed Trump since tracking began.
In a trickle-down effect, the Morning Consult poll shows that Democratic members of Congress have a worse net buzz than Republican members of Congress.
The latest Morning Consult poll asked voters if they thought Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee. Forty-eight percent said yes, up one percentage point from June. A larger percentage of young 18-34 voters (65%), Black voters (55%) and Hispanic voters (64%) answered yes.
A separate Morning Consult survey found the Democratic Party has less support on several key items than it did in the survey ahead of the 2020 election. Here is a look at the favored party in the category and the results of the 2020 survey in parentheses.
Capable of Governing: 45% Democratic Party (48%), 47% Republican Party (42%)
Can Tackle Big Issues: 40% Democratic Party (44%), 44% Republican Party (38%)
Represents My Views: 39% Democratic Party (40%), 40% Republican Party (33%)
Cares About People Like Me: 41% Democratic Party (45%), 39% Republican Party (34%)
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