Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to face off against former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
The change comes with President Joe Biden withdrawing from the race and Harris having the reported delegates support to win the nomination.
A new election poll shows a close head-to-head battle.
What Happened: The first 2024 presidential debate performance by Trump and Biden saw election polls and betting odds from sportsbooks and prediction markets shift more in favor of the former president.
With Biden withdrawing from the race, the battle to win the 2024 election could be back to being the toss-up that was seen months ago.
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist 2024 poll shows Trump with a one-point lead over Harris in a head-to-head battle. Trump has 46% support with Harris getting 45% and 9% of voters are undecided.
A larger percentage of voters are now undecided after Biden dropped out, as earlier this month only 2% of voters in the poll were undecided in the head-to-head battle.
When third-party candidates are included, the poll looks like this:
- Donald Trump: 42%
- Kamala Harris: 42%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 7%
- Jill Stein: 1%
- Cornel West: 1%
The support for Kennedy Jr. hit the lowest since he was included by the poll group in April.
Why It’s Important: Along with tying Trump in the five-way race in the poll, Harris is showing ground being made up in the 2024 election race since Biden dropped out.
NPR said Harris ranks better than Biden among key voter groups like young voters and non-White voters.
Sixty-five percent of Democrats also said that Biden stepping down increases the party’s chances of winning the 2024 election.
Harris has a smaller percentage of Independent voters than Biden was pulling, but many of the Independent voters are now undecided in the election. Around 20% of Independent voters are undecided and around 30% of Independent women voters are undecided.
Harris becoming the official nominee and naming a vice president pick could shift the undecided voters in the coming weeks to get a closer look at the head-to-head battle. According to the Washington Post, “Vice President Harris will select her running mate by Aug. 7, according to two officials familiar with her timeline who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations.”
Seventy-seven percent of Democratic voters and Democratic-leading Independent voters polled said Harris is the right nominee for the party.
Eighty-seven percent of all voters said Biden stepping down was the right decision in the election. Sixty-eight percent said Biden should finish his current presidential term before making way for the 2024 election winner in January.
Harris has a net favorability ranking of minus four points, with 40% viewing her as positive and 44% viewing her as negative. Trump ranks worse with 43% viewing him as positive and 49% viewing him as negative. Biden was seven points behind where Harris is for her net favorability ranking, based on the ratings in a poll earlier this month.
Trump’s vice-presidential pick of J.D. Vance doesn’t get favorable ratings with 28% viewing him as favorable and 31% viewing him as negative and 41% saying they have never heard of him or have no opinion.
When asked who Harris’ vice president pick should be, voters in the poll selected Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (21%), Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (21%) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (17%) as the top options.
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