The presidential odds and betting markets show a fairly even head-to-head matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Here’s a look at who has the edge and how the markets have shifted in recent months.
What Happened: With President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 election, Vice President Harris quickly became the frontrunner for the Democratic Party and will now face off against Trump in less than three months.
The betting odds are near even between the two candidates at Bet365, as reported by Covers. Trump has the slight edge at odds of -125 with Harris ranking close behind at +100.
Based on the betting odds, the implied odds of winning are 55.6% for Trump and 50% for Harris. Ranking behind the two leading candidates is third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at odds of +5,000 and an implied 2% chance of winning. Following the three candidates are other names like Nikki Haley, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom, who are unlikely to be running or win the election.
This marks a shift in the betting odds from July. After an assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania, his odds hit -250 as a larger favorite with Biden listed at +500 and Harris at +800.
Following the first presidential debate, Trump had odds of -175, with Harris at +400 topping the odds of Biden at +800 before his withdrawal from the race.
In late June, Trump was listed with odds of -188 with Biden at +350 and Harris significantly behind at +2,200.
The current odds are most similar to the month of May, which saw Trump as a -110 favorite and Biden closely behind at +130.
Keep in mind that back in January 2021, it was Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of +350 based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
Prediction market Polymarket, which calls itself the world’s largest prediction market, offers betting on items in categories such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and more.
Users deposit to Polygon MATIC/USD using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD. Winning wagers cash out at $1 and losing markets end up worthless.
The prediction market for the winner of the 2024 presidential election has attracted over $539 million in wagers on Polymarket. Here are the current odds:
Donald Trump: 51%
Kamala Harris: 48%
Similar to sportsbooks, the prediction market shows a near toss-up between the two candidates.
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Why It’s Important: The improving betting odds for Harris and Trump’s odds worsening come as election polls are showing Harris closing the gap and re-gaining support lost by Biden. In some polls, Harris is leading Trump.
A recent Morning Consult poll showed Harris with a four-point lead over Trump among nationally registered voters. A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll of voters in seven key swing states showed Harris with an overall lead of 48% to 47%. Harris is leading Trump in five of the seven states, tied in one, and trails Trump in one.
These seven swing states represent 93 electoral votes collectively and could decide the 2024 election. Six of the seven swing states were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with five slipping from Trump’s win in 2016.
Harris has also shown a lead among Independent voters and young voters in a recent poll, which could be two key voter groups that decide the 2024 election.
Betting odds for Trump hit highs after the assassination attempt and after Biden’s stumble during the first presidential debate. With Harris now taking Trump on and polls showing a close battle, sportsbooks and prediction markets show a close battle as well.
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