A close head-to-head battle between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is expected in polls for the 2024 presidential election.
Betting prediction markets paint a different picture with one candidate jumping out to a sizable lead. Here’s the latest.
What Happened: Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are among the companies taking election betting by storm and often showing wide swings on the leading candidate, something that has drawn red flags in recent weeks.
Polymarket witnessed a wide swing in Trump’s favor, which comes with several large wagers placed on him, which could sway the percentage chance he has of winning and not be indicative of how people will vote or who the majority of people think will win.
On Kalshi, Trump is also seeing his lead grow, with the prediction market for the 2024 presidential election winner showing a 58% chance for Trump and 42% chance for Harris on Thursday, hitting a record-high 16-point lead for the former president.
At the time of writing, the market shows Trump at 57% and Harris at 43% with over $22.9 million in wagers. Polymarket shows Trump with a 61% chance of winning and Harris with a 39% chance of winning with a $1.9 billion bet.
Kalshi recently resumed accepting bets on the 2024 election after a federal appeals court lifted a prior ban that came as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) contested the markets.
The company calls itself the only place to legally bet on the election in the U.S., with other prediction markets and sportsbooks not allowed to legally accept wagers in the country.
While prediction markets show Trump as the overall leader, the key markets could be on the individual swing states that could determine the election.
Here are the current odds on Kalshi, with electoral college votes for each state in parentheses:
- Arizona (11): Trump 64%, Harris 36%
- Georgia (16): Trump 60%, Harris 40%
- Michigan (15): Harris 51%, Trump 49%
- Nevada (6): Harris 52%, Trump 48%
- North Carolina (16): Trump 58%, Harris 42%
- Pennsylvania (19): Trump 54%, Harris 46%
- Wisconsin (10): Trump 52%, Harris 48%
The current odds show Harris winning two states and getting 21 electoral college votes from the seven key states and Trump winning five states and getting 72 electoral college votes from the swing states.
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Why It’s Important: On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon MATIC/USD network, or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. In each betting market, the winning options pays out at $1.
Polymarket could show results that skew to a more international audience, while Kalshi could provide a better look at who American voters think will win.
Both prediction markets differ from national election polls for the overall winner, where Harris is often the winner. Sportsbooks show Trump as the slight favorite, but much closer than the prediction markets.
A recent Emerson College poll of voters in the seven key swing states showed a similar result to the Kalshi markets above.
- Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 47%
- Georgia: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
- Michigan: Trump 49%, Harris 49%
- Nevada: Harris 48%, Trump 47%
- North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
- Wisconsin: Trump 49%, Harris 49%
That poll showed Trump leading in four states, Harris leading in one and the candidates tied in two states. The percentages were much closer than the prediction markets though.
The seven swing states in question together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven states were won by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election with Trump winning North Carolina. Several of the states were flipped from Trump’s win in the 2016 election.
An X account shared an update from election predictor Nate Silver saying Trump has a 50% chance of winning the 2024 election. The model jumps to 93% chance if Trump wins Pennsylvania.
The tweet prompted a response from Tesla CEO Elon Musk who has publicly supported Trump and is now campaigning for him.
“That’s why I’m in Pennsylvania,” Musk said.
Musk said “making progress” earlier Thursday when sharing the Kalshi market that showed Trump with an all-time high lead in the prediction market.
The new prediction of the importance of Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes and Trump’s growing lead in the state could illustrate why the overall presidential race is close.
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