Trump’s Return To White House Could Spell Disaster For Taipei, Warns War Game Simulation: ‘Taiwan Was Toast’

A war game scenario has predicted a grim outcome for Taiwan if tensions rise with China during a hypothetical return to the White House for Donald Trump in 2025. The simulation concluded with Taiwan being unable to meet the demands of China and the U.S.

What Happened: The war game simulation was orchestrated by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank based in Washington, DC. The exercise was intended to last three hours but concluded in just two without any shots being fired, reported Business Insider.

Alexander C. Huang, the international relations director for Taiwan’s KMT political party, told The New York Times, “Taiwan was toast.”

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The simulation found that Taiwan could not meet the hypothetical demands from China and the U.S., including a timeline for unification and increased military spending. Even though war games are not definitive predictors, they are used to strategize for potential conflicts.

Stanley Rosen, a professor at the University of Southern California’s US-China Institute, expressed concerns about Trump’s unpredictability affecting China-Taiwan relations, stating that “Trump is completely unreliable as an ally or an opponent.”

Trump has previously declined to state explicitly whether he would come to Taipei’s defense if China invaded, leaving many anxious about the potential implications of a second Trump term on China-Taiwan relations.

Why It Matters: Trump’s stance on China has been a point of contention. In June, he vowed to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods if Chinese President Xi Jinping did not shut down China’s spy base in Cuba. This aggressive stance could have significant implications for future U.S.-China relations.

Moreover, in January, Trump suggested that his victory in the Iowa Caucus had caused a significant downturn in China’s stock markets. His comments implied that Beijing was apprehensive about his potential return to the White House. These statements, combined with his unpredictable stance on Taiwan, could have far-reaching consequences for the region.

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