NYSE:TWI
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Farmer Sentiment
As noted below, sentiment among U.S. farmers plummeted in 2023 and 2024 but surged in October and November of 2024 as it appeared that President Trump would win the November 2024 election.
On December 3, 2024, the Ag Economy Barometer, a survey of 400 farmers in the U.S., skyrocketed in October and November of 2024, on the prospects of a Trump administration restoring the agriculture industry. Apparently, farmers are optimistic about lower tax rates and less environmental regulatory burdens on the agriculture economy in 2025. Also, the desire for capital investment significantly improved alongside a rise in expectations for farm financial performance in 2025.
On the negative side, U.S. farm debt is expected to reach a record in 2024 according to the USDA. Increases in real estate debt have boosted the total, while other debt remains roughly steady. Higher levels of debt repayment are less likely in 2025 as cheaper crops drive down revenue. Rising land values create a cost problem that affects mortgage payments and raises rents for farmers that don’t own land.
On January 7, 2025, an updated Ag Economy Barometer report was released. Farmer sentiment slightly weakened in December when compared to the prior two months. There were concerns about the current situation on their farms and U.S. agriculture as the primary driver behind the sentiment decline. However, it was clear that U.S. farmers continued to be more optimistic about the future than they were as recently as September 2024.
Expectations among farmers for more favorable regulatory, estate tax and income tax policies over the next several years explain much of the optimism about the future. However, the possibility that a trade war could break out and have a negative impact on U.S. agricultural exports is a rising concern among farmers.
2025 Estimates
We update our 2025 EPS estimate for Titan International (NYSE:TWI) to $0.14 per diluted share and introduce quarterly 2025 EPS estimates. Our 2026 EPS estimate is $0.43. Our 2025 EBITDA estimate is approximately $93.2 million.
We maintain our price target of $16.00 at this time as we await the company’s 10-K filing in February.
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