Unwrapping 2024 with the IBKR Podcast Crew

Celebrate the season with the IBKR podcast team as we reflect on 2024’s biggest moments and brightest insights, all wrapped in a festive holiday spirit! From market trends and memorable guests to cheerful stories and a few laugh-out-loud surprises, this IBKR Christmas Special is the perfect way to end the year with warmth and wisdom.

Summary – IBKR Podcasts Ep. 215

The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.

Andrew Wilkinson  

All right. Welcome, everybody, to the 2024 Year-End Podcast. My name’s Andrew Wilkinson, and we have a veritable crew here from across the nation. Let’s see—we’ve got Cassidy Clement, we’ve got Jose Torres, Steve Sosnick, and Jeff Praissman. Welcome, everybody. 

Steve Sosnick  

Hello. 

Jeff Praissman  

Thanks for having us. 

Jose Torres  

Hi. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

And these guys have done a fantastic job on the podcast, various podcast channels throughout 2024. What we thought might be a little fun is to have a little reflection on some of our favorite episodes. Cassidy, let’s start with you. You’re going to talk about… 

Cassidy Clement  

Sure. Yeah, so let’s just kick it off. Investopedia, for the past couple of years, has been doing an interesting article. Usually, it would come out sometime between the summer and the fall, on the average cost or the average sum of money you would need to make in a lifetime to afford the quote-unquote “American dream.” 

It was a really interesting podcast. If you’re looking for it, it came out on October 23, 2024. Episode 68 of Cents of Security with Caleb Silver—he’s the Editor-in-Chief at Investopedia. Basically, what we talked about was how much the economic landscape has changed, how it’s impacted the American Dream, what elements are associated with it, and in what ways they were increasing in cost—and maybe even changing from the desires of, we’ll say, the average American. 

What I think was interesting, at least for me as a millennial, was seeing how much the cost was for some of these things. But also, them being honest in the fact that not all these elements apply to people, and sometimes it doesn’t apply to people anymore. People aren’t going out and budgeting for their home office typewriter anymore, of course. So, there are different elements, but yeah. I mean, for my tidbit of conversation for the best of here for 2024, I guess I just kind of wanted to get everybody’s thoughts on how these elements are changing—especially now that we’ve come out of what was a really, I’ll use the word, unprecedented time with how COVID impacted the market, how it shifted our spending, and now how we’re seeing inflation impact all these elements like retirement, car ownership, owning a home, and, of course, higher education costs for your children or yourself. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

What was the biggest shocker, do you think, in terms of items that have gone up that really impinge upon the millennial, do you think? 

Cassidy Clement  

So personally, I have seven great-grandchildren—actually, eight, oh my goodness—in my family, and they range from five going up to 17. So, I have a lot of conversations with them about saving for college and part-time jobs. In this analysis, the general $800,000 that needed to be made and saved for two children from the parents or the family to be able to go through a four-year degree—staggering is a good way to put it when I read that. Because I want my cousins and my family to be able to have the opportunity for a good education, but that number is pretty wild because not everybody is hitting that lottery. That, to me, was the biggest shock—or I guess you could say the hardest pill to swallow as one of the older cousins who has to help guide them. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Who else has got a question for Cassidy? 

Steve Sosnick  

Are people getting the message, though? I vividly remember walking with my wife in Soho shortly after one of the rounds of stimulus came out and being amazed at the long lines of young people standing in front of various purveyors of luxury goods—whether it was, I don’t remember, Chanel or whomever. So it was clear that a lot of people said, “Oh wait, I’ve got this free money. Let me go spend it on something that I normally can’t afford.” Are people getting your—the message that you’re giving is quite important—are people getting it? 

Cassidy Clement  

I think that’s like the perfect cherry on top of kind of how Caleb and I’s conversation went. What was interesting was we were talking about how the difference in life experience impacts that. So especially after COVID—after “stimulus time,” if you will—a lot of people were looking at what they were spending and how they were getting it since a lot of educational elements were becoming digital or digitized, if you will, or virtual. 

And also, there are a lot of elements of people who are looking to maybe rent items or lease items instead of buy them, which was a traditional way. And right now—not to name-drop another podcast—but we did do one called Generational Finance, which covered Gen Z, Gen X, Millennials, and Boomers and how their financial habits have changed, evolved, and how they left the market for the generation coming after them. Millennials have an interesting element where they have the most advantage to retire or save to retire. But not everybody is putting into that, and I think that was a reflection of probably what you were seeing. 

A lot of people may have—the job market was in an interesting spot as well—but not everybody has the opportunity to save that much. But when you do have the influence of cash at a quick time, there may be a change in spending habits. But the inflationary impact was what was seen, at least in this article, as okay. Now, after the fact of all that cash influence, how did it impact these places? I know a handful of you on this podcast have children of various ages. I’m sure that you saw the impact on the bottom line or your receipts at the end of the year. I mean, just from me grocery shopping, I look at my expenditures and I can’t even believe the change from the beginning of the year to the end in how much it costs just for groceries. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Yeah, that’s an absolute shocker. Steve, we’ve had some fantastic guests on the program this year. Your favorite podcast involved an interview with Nouriel Roubini, I believe. 

Steve Sosnick  

Yeah, and I do have to give Jose the shoutout because he’s the one who really organized it. He just let me sit in. This year, I seem to have morphed into America’s sidekick for these podcasts. I’m not sure I’ve actually hosted any of my own. Thank you, Cassidy, for not giving me the shoutout for the various ones that I did with you. 

I will say the Roubini one was very interesting because he’s a guy I’ve followed along the way. By the way, let me preface this by saying I got this note saying we should be dressed in seasonal attire. Obviously, no one else did, but perhaps my sweater is very emblematic of my discussion with Nouriel Roubini. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Steve, I seem to remember that you sent that email and nobody… 

Steve Sosnick  

I did not send that email. I feel like a schmuck right now. 

Jeff Praissman  

It’s April, Steve. April. 

Steve Sosnick  

Yeah, exactly. But I will say this maybe the sweater was emblematic of our discussion with Nouriel Roubini because he was always known as “Dr. Doom.” It was interesting because I actually got to meet the original “Dr. Doom,” Henry Kaufman, back in the day. So now, I guess I’m checking off the boxes on gloomy economists. Although Dr. Roubini has since kind of capitulated—Jose, correct me if I’m wrong—but is he perhaps the last bear to capitulate? We lost Marko Kalanovich, we lost David Rosenberg, and we lost Roubini—or kind of lost Roubini—which maybe means I should be taking the message that my sweater pervades a little more seriously. 

I will say that the best thing I did this year actually had nothing to do with the markets. I got to wear this sweater in Northern Manitoba when I finally went to see polar bears in person, which was awfully cool. But I think the message sent by Dr. Roubini and Dr. Miran was What is the government doing? Why are we just continuing to spew out debt? At some point, you hear about the proverbial “Minsky moment” when investors demand much more return for debt. That was really the theme they explored. 

The Minsky moment is sort of reflective of the Hemingway character who, when asked how he went bankrupt, replied, “Gradually and then suddenly.” I think I’m misquoting it, but that’s kind of what the Minsky moment implies—where you’re leaning toward something and one day it pushes you over the edge. Think about August, when the yen was strengthening a bit, and then suddenly, one day, the carry trades exploded. Or a couple of years ago, during the very brief Liz Truss premiership, there was a crisis in the gilts market. 

I’m not saying this is imminent, and I don’t think either Dr. Miran or Dr. Roubini went that far. But it does become a little unsustainable. A little fun fact anyone care to guess what the U.S.’s biggest export is right now? 

Jose Torres  

Aircraft? Soybeans? 

Steve Sosnick  

How about government debt? 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Wow. 

Steve Sosnick  

That’s the thing foreigners buy the most of that we produce here in the U.S. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

Well, we’re particularly good at it, Steve. 

Steve Sosnick  

This didn’t come up in the podcast, but I’ve since done some research on it and have been meaning to write a Traders Insight piece about it. I’ll get around to it—especially since there’s probably not much to write about during the holiday season other than rehashing my Trading Places content. Speaking of seasonal, the podcast with Thomas where he explains he might have been the Duke brothers remains my favorite. But anyway, that’s certainly the message to take away. 

I think we’re extraordinarily euphoric right now. The Fed is throwing another log on the fire. We’re taping this just before the December Fed meeting. They’re widely expected to cut rates despite inflation running above target, despite a 4.2% unemployment rate, despite corporate bond spreads being at record-tight levels, and despite asset prices being at all-time highs. So sure, let’s cut rates again. That’s the kind of thing they were wondering about, but it does preserve the ability of the U.S. to finance deficits—and so here we are. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Jose, do you want to chime in? You interviewed Nouriel as well. 

Jose Torres  

Steve, I agree with everything you said for the most part. I’d like to point to some interviews I did this year with former FDIC Chair Bill Isaac, who I used to be an advisor to. We did an IBKR podcast with him in the first half of the year and another at the Money Show in Sarasota about two weeks ago, in early December. 

The cost of allowing government debt to balloon—and this “buy now, pay later” mindset among governments all over the world, not just in the U.S.—is staggering. Let’s focus on the U.S. here. What it’s done is create an environment where we haven’t had a big shock like Japan’s carry trade unraveling or yields jumping 200 or 300 basis points. But what has happened since the 2008 financial crisis is that life has gotten much harder for younger generations to make ends meet. 

Unless we make tough decisions now, we’ll face even tougher choices down the road. I’m hopeful about the Department of Government Efficiency. Maybe smart decisions can help cushion the deficit. 

As far as the markets are concerned, I, Steve, am disappointed with the Fed and with Powell because we thought in late 2022, for those of us that studied the 1970s and the 1980s and Volcker and all that, he was quoting a lot of those periods in time where inflation was really high, and as a nation, we had to make imminent sacrifices to get us on the right path. By the way, Bill Isaac was on that team as well. 

I thought we were going in that direction. Maybe markets would be flat for some time as we adjusted. But instead, after—and two important critical months were August 2022, Steve, remember Jackson Hole?—and then March 2023, a few months later, regional banks. Powell talked a lot about Volcker, economic volatility, and the need to make sacrifices to get us on the right path. Well, we got the volatility in March, and since then, they essentially opened the door to rate cuts. And now we’re here in December 2024, with the possibility that inflation can reignite again. 

Now, let me tilt the conversation a little bit to some of my favorite podcasts this year, which had to do with forecast contracts. Two of them I’d like to point to one where we had—it was myself, Andrew Wilkinson, and the CEO of ForecastEx, David Downey, and then one where it was just myself and Andrew Wilkinson. We spoke a lot about ForecastEx Picks, which every week, Steve and I look at what we have in the forecast contract universe, and we try to come up with a consensus on where there’s relative value. 

Steve Sosnick has roughly four to five decades of experience. I have only… 

Steve Sosnick  

Not that many. 

Jose Torres  

Okay, three to four. Three to four. 

Steve Sosnick  

Thank you. 

Jose Torres  

I was going to say six. Three to four. I have one. So combined, we have four to five. And we try to come up with which probabilities here offer the best value for our customers. I haven’t tallied, but so far, I think we’re five out of six. We missed that payroll that came in way above expectations. But we’re about five out of six, so our success rate has been pretty high. 

We just started the effort. ForecastEx itself just obtained approval from federal regulators in the second half of this year. It was a slow start until we got approval to allow election contracts. The Trump versus Harris contracts were incredibly popular. Today, our volume since inception—since its inception—is over $600 million. Our founder and chairman, Thomas Peterffy, is very enthusiastic and thinks that the climate change contracts and national debt contracts and the contracts on economic indicators are going to be a big driver of Interactive Brokers’ business for decades to come. So we’re excited. We’re talking a lot about forecast contracts—simple yes-or-no answers to some of the most complicated questions in an effort to achieve consensus. Yeah, so pretty much those have been my favorite developments of the year. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

And just a quick plug, Jose, you’re going to be streaming live on X on, I think, the 3rd of January, over the nonfarm payrolls, ahead of that, to discuss forecast contracts in the context of the BLS labor report that morning. Is that right? 

Jose Torres  

Yes, it’s a week later because of the new year, so it’s January 10th for jobs. That’ll be on X. And then January 15th, CPI day, we’ll be talking to the Redditors live as the report comes out, answering questions, talking about the market reaction, how folks are positioned prior, how folks are positioned after. Similar on X and on Reddit, but Reddit will be more of a typing Q&A, whereas X will be more of a vocal and audio and video kind of performance. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

All right. Thanks, Jose. And now I want to move on to a couple of my favorite podcasts, which falls under the theme of the internship program this year. For the last several years, Interactive Brokers has developed a really cool internship program, which involves applications for software jobs, for programming jobs, in the hopes that we can do two things we can train people and observe them over the summer months, and we can potentially find good employees going forward. And one of the… this… I’m very passionate about the internship program because it gives me the opportunity to meet the younger generation, to hear what they’ve got to say, and also to work with them. 

And one of my tasks every year—and I know, Steve, this applies to you as well—is that we get to go and sit in a room at a Friday lunchtime and do a Lunch and Learn session where we can talk about our careers, a bit about Interactive Brokers, and to give them the opportunity to ask questions about what it’s like to work here, how your career has developed, and so on. 

So part of the internship program that we’ve developed over the last several years is to engage the students—it doesn’t Mater which department they’re working in—but to give them the opportunity to put together a couple of podcasts. And this year, it worked extremely well because we had two particular podcasts that I’d like to call out. One of my favorite podcasts this year was with Mat Cashman of the OIC, or the Options Industry Council, in which we worked with a selection of the intern group to put together a podcast to discuss his background, his career, and what he does now as an educator. And I listened to the finished result, and it was amazing. 

It was mind-blowing. I think this is my favorite episode of the year. I didn’t realize—I knew that I worked with Mat on a regular monthly basis, delivering webinars. What I didn’t realize is that he actually ran a hedge fund, and the hedge fund blew up. And he went into some phenomenal detail about just what happened and the psychological impact of that. It really is a conversation worth returning to if you haven’t heard it. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

And the second podcast was with Alexander Gunz, who is a contact of ours from Heptagon Capital in London, in which the interns got the opportunity to ask Alex questions about technology, how he frames the portfolio, the technology portfolio that he runs there, how he does his research. And it was, again, really well put together. I cannot understate the effort that these guys and the level of intellect, the level of questioning that they had for the guys. So, I know both guests were very pleased with the outcome there. 

And I want to turn to just, like, the fact that I sat in front of the—I stood in front of the interns and delivered my Lunch and Learn speech, and I wanted to just recount a funny story that day. So, I went through a PowerPoint presentation in front of these guys—they were live here in Greenwich, Connecticut, and some of them were in Chicago and Fort Lauderdale offices, and the London office, and so on—and I told the story of my career, how I got here, what happened, and what I used to do in London. And it was a great lunch session. And the HR department said, “Okay, we’ve got a $200 Amazon gift card here to award to whoever can get the question right that Andrew’s going to pose at the end of the session.” 

So, I tried to weave together a little story. I explained that I’d left London under a bit of a cloud in 2000, and I came to Florida to live. I explained that I had six children, and I explained that I had five dogs and 14 cats. And I asked them to all try and figure out which one of those was the porky. And with the “leaving London under a cloud,” I said the reason I came to live in the United States was I was part of the Interpol Witness Protection Program. And so, at the end of the lunch, I decided, “Okay, you’ve got to decide which one’s the truth. And if you get the true answer, then you win the $200 gift card.” 

And not one of them got the right answer. They all said, “Well, there’s no way he’s going to have six kids. No way.” Then they kind of looked at each of them and said, “14 cats? No way. Five dogs? Maybe. 14 cats? No way.” So, somebody said, “Well, okay, can you name the cats?” And I said, “Next slide.” And I had a list of the 14 kittens’ names on the board, but they all went for that. They all fell for it—the old witness protection program gig. 

Steve Sosnick  

Wow. Well, I will say my favorite intern story—by the way, I did not get lunch when I did the Lunch and Learn. I ended up… 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Me neither. 

Steve Sosnick  

…and I don’t even think I got potato chips. So, let me throw that out there. But my favorite intern story is because of our marketing relationship with Bloomberg. If you listen to Bloomberg Radio, you hear the “Interactive Brokers Studio,” etc., etc. There, we do a lot of advertising on their TV and other properties. 

So, obviously, we were—it wasn’t me that arranged this. I guess someone else in marketing arranged a trip for our interns to go visit Bloomberg headquarters. But they were going to get a fairly cursory tour, so I called a friend of mine over there, who I’ve talked to for years, who’s an editor in their newsroom. And she graciously said, “I’ll give them an extra talk.” And it was a beautiful day. They did it on a terrace overlooking the city. She gave it sort of an extra 15- to 20-minute talk, which the interns really seemed to appreciate. 

But the funny part is, another reporter I talk to all the time reached out to me through Bloomberg’s messaging system and said, “Oh my God, your interns are attacking our snack room.” If you’ve never been there—and I’ve been there fairly frequently—essentially, you take the elevator to the sixth floor, and the sixth floor is basically just a room full of food. There’s a couch where you can wait, and there are some offices and stuff off to the side. But essentially, it’s this giant room full of snacks—generally healthy snacks. Apparently, you put a bunch of college kids in a room with unlimited snacks, tell them to take what they want, and they went a little bit nuts. So, I thought that was hysterical when that came to me separately, like, “Oh my gosh, your interns are rampaging the place.” But from what I do understand, other than the snack rampage—which I now understand is fairly normal for every group of college-aged kids who turn up there—they were very, very well-behaved and very well-received. 

Jose Torres  

Don’t forget the bike—the bike rules too, Steve. 

Steve Sosnick  

Oh, yeah, at Bloomberg. I’ve never ridden a bike there. 

Jose Torres  

The bike lanes in New York—that was… 

Steve Sosnick  

Oh, yeah. Well, that’s fine. I ride a Citi Bike occasionally. I think it’s great. I would prefer it if the delivery guys didn’t actually ride the wrong way on streets, so that you have to look both ways on a one-way street now, so that you don’t get whacked by someone driving the wrong way. But the bike lanes—I think that’s a good idea. Why not? Amsterdam’s a lovely place. Why not get a little bit more of that in New York? 

Andrew Wilkinson  

So, that was my story about the internship podcast, and it involved Mat Cashman. And I know, Jeff, your favorite guest throughout the year—or your favorite podcast—was also with Mat Cashman. Tell us about that one. 

Jeff Praissman  

Yeah, well, first of all, before I even go any further—and since Steve is quoting Hemingway, and we are a literary bunch—to all my other podcast guests, I love all my podcasts equally, just some more equally than others, to paraphrase Orwell. 

But I did a great episode with Mat Cashman, and it was called No Math, No Problem Learning the Option Greeks Through Metaphors. The reason I really liked it—for a couple of reasons—is that options trading has grown; it’s more than doubled since 2019. It’s exploded for various reasons, including electronic trading and the creation of other products. 

We don’t necessarily need to get into all that, but this concept of explaining Greeks—we really went into three of the five main ones Delta, Gamma, and Theta. Mat did a phenomenal job. It was so original how he explained it without using any math. He basically used car metaphors. 

For example, he explained that Delta is like your speedometer. You don’t need to stick your head out the window to know how fast you’re going—whether it’s 40 miles per hour or 20 miles per hour. The Delta will tell you how much the option will change based on the stock price. Then he compared Gamma to the car you’re driving. If you’re driving an F1 car, it’s going to be super nimble—it’s like high Gamma. If you’re driving a semi-truck, you’re not going to be able to turn on a dime; that’s low Gamma. Finally, he described Theta, which we all know as time decay, as your gas tank. Each day, as time passes, your gas tank gets emptier. 

I thought he took these concepts and made them incredibly accessible, especially for people who don’t know anything about options. It was a fantastic introduction. And for people who are already knowledgeable, it was still entertaining and original. It was just a great overall conversation with Mat. He always brings excellent content to our platforms. 

Steve Sosnick  

I’ll say Mat is definitely going to win “Most Valuable Guest” this year. I also want to thank him for inviting me to speak at the OIC conference. He’s one of the best voices out there, and the OIC’s dedication to education really shows through him. He takes his job very seriously and does it incredibly well. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

I think I’d second that. So, onto 2025—Jose, have you got any guests on the calendar for next year that are noteworthy? 

Jose Torres  

Not yet, but we do have Steve Sosnick joining us for the Jobs Report Podcast. I believe it’s going to be on January 13th. Ladies and gentlemen, Steve Sosnick, Jose Torres, Andrew Wilkinson—we’re going to talk all about the jobs report. We do it every month. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Yeah, those have become quite a lot of fun. I think we’ve streamlined the process, and we have lively banter. We know each other quite well, and I think they turn out really well each month. 

Steve Sosnick  

Yes. 

Jose Torres  

We’ll revisit the whole bike lane conversation as well as the sodas. I’m all for the soda ban, Steve, but not diet sodas. Okay? I want to have my four-liter diet soda containers in the fridge if I may. 

Andrew Wilkinson  

Okay, so thank you to the audience for joining us today. My guests have been Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers; Jose Torres, Senior Economist; Cassidy Clement, Senior Manager of SEO Content here at Interactive Brokers; and Jeff Praissman on the Education Team here. My name’s Andrew Wilkinson.  

Thanks to everybody for joining me, and don’t forget to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts from. Bye, everybody. 

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