Urgency, Debate Mark COP29 As Leaders Push For Carbon Market Rules, Worry About Trump

The Conference of the Parties (COP) 29 summit brought global leaders to Baku, Azerbaijan, for an 11-day session to address climate change, carbon market mechanisms and climate finance.

Hosted in a country heavily reliant on fossil fuels, the event is a mix of urgency and controversy, particularly after BBC reported local representatives engaging in oil and gas deals.

Still, the primary focus of its first days is establishing the rules for a global carbon market — a move aimed at helping countries meet emissions targets by trading carbon credits.

This mechanism, intended to fund projects that reduce emissions globally, allows wealthy countries to purchase credits from those with lower emissions, thus offsetting their carbon output.

The stakes are high at COP29, particularly with pressing issues such as funding for climate-vulnerable countries and updating climate targets. The attendees will discuss the succession of the annual $100 billion pledged by developing nations, as the sum may need to be raised significantly to account for the increasing impact of climate change. This finance component is critical for maintaining trust between rich and poor nations, especially as commitments still need to be met.

“I’m as frustrated as anyone that one single COP can’t deliver the full transformation that every nation needs… [but] it is here that parties need to agree a way out of this mess. That’s why here in Baku, we must agree on a new global climate finance goal,” said the U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell.

The upcoming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in January 2025 gives participants a dose of doubt. During his previous term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and rolled back numerous environmental regulations.

Analysts anticipate a similar approach, potentially hindering U.S. contributions to global climate finance. Trump’s return could exacerbate tensions, mainly as he has been vocal about downplaying climate initiatives.

Still, greenlighting the carbon credit quality standards on the first day provides an opportunity for a U.N.-backed global carbon market that would fund critical projects.

Juan Carlos Arredondo Brun, a former climate negotiator for Mexico and now a director at a carbon market data company Abatable, noted this development “will bring us closer to operationalizing the carbon market before any single party may decide to move away from the Paris Agreement,” per Reuter’s report.

The carbon market, increasingly popular among corporations seeking to offset their emissions, has some of the largest buyers in the energy and automotive sectors. Shell SHEL, Volkswagen VWAGY, and Takeda TAK were the top three companies retiring carbon credits in 2023.

Shell led with 16 million credits, primarily from forestry projects, while Volkswagen retired eight million credits linked to renewable energy and reforestation. Pharmaceutical giant Takeda contributed nearly three million credits to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

A standardized carbon market could be a lifeline for U.S. companies committed to carbon-emission goals. Notable examples include Ford Motor Co. F, which is delaying the launch of a next-generation all-electric pickup truck and has scrapped the development of a new three-row electric SUV. Yet, the management has confirmed it will seek to comply with emissions targets, including purchasing carbon credits as needed.

The COP29 conference will run until Nov. 22. Setting a new annual budget could significantly impact clean energy investments. Investors should watch iShares Global Clean Energy ETF ICLN and sub-sector ETFs like the Invesco Solar ETF TAN and First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF FAN.

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