Hello, Reader.
Tom Yeung here with today’s Smart Money.
In early 2000, Masayoshi Son, the founder, chairman, and CEO of SoftBank Group Corp. (SFTBY), was riding high. His early investment in Yahoo in 1995 had made him a superstar, and surging dot-com valuations gave him even more cash to deploy.
Rather than invest in the priciest dot-com companies of the day, like Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Son decided to plunk down money into the upstart Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), a Chinese-owned e-commerce firm valued at a tiny fraction of its American counterparts.
The bet paid off.
His initial $54 million investment turned into well over $72 billion – a 1,300X return – as Alibaba became a behemoth over the next couple of decades.
However, as chronicled in a new biography, Gambling Man, Son’s legacy was far more complicated than scoring big wins on early-stage startups. His dot-com days involved some poorly timed wagers on big firms and plenty of failed smaller bets.
And over the years, the ballooning value of his SoftBank fund (thanks to Alibaba and outside investors) meant Son needed to find increasingly pricey, late-stage companies to buy.
For instance, he put $9.3 billion into ride-hailing firm Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) in a pre-IPO funding round. It was a move that enriched early Uber investors while leaving the late-coming SoftBank with limited upside.
And his $5 billion investment in office-sharing firm WeWork happened at the peak of that frothy market. His fund ended up losing almost all of its investment in the deal.
That’s why Son’s latest $500 million bet on OpenAI has raised eyebrows. This fundraising round is happening relatively late in the AI company’s history; Softbank will receive just 0.3% of equity for its troubles.
The hype surrounding OpenAI and other large language model (LLM) developers feels like it’s reaching a crescendo. Perhaps most importantly, other latecomers seem to be pouring cash into AI companies without regard for valuation.
That’s why Eric openly asked in the October issue of Fry’s Investment Report published last week (members can log in here): Is it 2000 again?
So, in today’s Smart Money, let’s discuss why it’s so important to be mindful of valuations. Then, I’ll share why you’ll want to invest in companies beyond the pricy AI bets… and where to find them.
Party Like It’s 1999 2000
Today’s stock market environment certainly has many similarities to the dot-com era. As Eric notes in his latest issue for paid-up members, the S&P 500 today (as measured by P/E ratios) is in its highest 5% of historical norms. Hundreds of AI startups with no plans for profits are raising money at multibillion-dollar valuations.
Plus, Masayoshi Son is now investing in AI.
This is particularly noticeable across expensive companies. Since the start of the year, the EV-to-EBITDA ratios (a valuation metric that also considers debt) of the highest quintile of S&P 500 companies have seen multiples surge to 42.9X. That’s a 29% increase from previous multiples of 33.3X. (Companies in the lower four quintiles saw a far milder 7% rise.)
Networking equipment maker Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), for instance, has seen its valuations surge 48% to a 40X EV-to-EBITDA multiple on excitement over AI data centers.
That means it’s more important than ever to be mindful of valuations, particularly with expensive stocks. Many bets on the highest-priced AI companies today will never pay off for long-term investors. SoftBank’s $500 million investment in OpenAI will be diluted over the coming years, given the startup’s rapid cash burn rate. OpenAI would have to IPO at a $500 billion-plus valuation for SoftBank to break even.
In fact, the prices of most late-stage LLM developers, like MistralAI and Anthropic, are being calculated on their buyout values, rather than on any concrete cash-flow model. (And unlike previous buyout rounds, tech giants this time around are keener on building these technologies in-house.)
Even well-established players are beginning to reach the limits of valuation. In February, I wrote how Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) could be worth a split-adjusted $160 by 2027 – a figure that gave it a 125% upside at the time. Today, the chipmaker’s high prices leave just 20% more of those gains on the table.
In general, every dollar of capital gains that happened yesterday leaves one fewer dollar for tomorrow.
Invest in AI Stocks With “Substance”
As Eric says, some of the best investments from 2000… 2008… and 2020… were not the obvious picks.
Instead, copper, energy, and other “boring” companies often trounced their higher-priced tech counterparts. It’s why he’s recently pivoted away from the priciest AI bets, like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), in the Fry’s Investment Report portfolio. He recently sold both stocks for over 100% gains.
Rather, he believes that uranium is a potential winner of the AI Revolution and recommended a play on the metal to his subscribers (to learn more about Fry’s Investment Report and how to join, go here).
That said, not all AI stocks are expensive – or “obvious” – right now. So, which AI stocks are fairly valued and set up to perform wonderfully with the help of superior performance?
But like we’ve been saying in this hype can only get you so far, and substance matters… valuation matters.
That’s what my InvestorPlace colleague Louis Navellier is focusing on today, and that has him looking at AI.
In fact, Louis’s entire market approach is based on substance – meaning fundamental strength as evidenced by his quantitative approach to the market – and he’s worried that investors are missing out.
He’s seeing a lot of people buying overvalued stocks in the AI space, or hiding out in cash or elsewhere.
Neither is the right approach. And so, Louis has put together a presentation highlighting a better way to be in AI.
Here’s Louis…
Recklessly investing in “the first generation” of AI stocks is going to cost you dearly in exactly the kind of financial shift I’ve spend my 47 years on Wall Street predicting again and again.
But the fact is, if you know what’s coming, and what to do, it will be among the best opportunities in 2024 to make serious gains, faster than you can imagine.
Again, to access Louis’s latest research broadcast, click here.
Regards,
Thomas Yeung
Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace
Thomas Yeung is a market analyst and portfolio manager of the Omnia Portfolio, the highest-tier subscription at InvestorPlace. He is the former editor of Profit & Protection, a free e-letter about investing to profit in good times and protecting gains during the bad.
